ATP Tennis Odds, Bets, Analysis: Best Bets for Second Round Action in Halle (June 16)
Al Bello/Getty. Oscar Otte hits a serve at the US Open.
Week two on the grass at the ATP level rolls on, as the tournaments in Germany and England take divergent paths.
While the top seeds and players in Halle are finding some success as the week wears on, the seeds in London are dropping like flies.
Let’s dive into a few matches happening Thursday in Halle as the business end of the tournament looms.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Nikoloz Basilashvili (-115) vs. Oscar Otte (-110)
7:30 a.m. ET
As the books and markets catch up to Otte matches on the totals – he’s now played seven tiebreaks in his eight sets on grass this season – his moneyline is looking like the more enticing market to attack.
With his massive serve and forehand combination, the German has managed to hold an astonishing 95.7% of his service games so far this grass season. The downside for him,is he hasn’t managed to find many breaks of serve.
Nevertheless, he’s beaten the likes of Denis Shapovalov and Miomir Kecmanovic so far, with a two-tiebreak loss to grass court aficionado Matteo Berrettini.
Equipped with the ability to hold serve and keep his nerve in tiebreaks, Basilashvili isn’t the worst opponent in the world for him.
While the Georgian also rips from the baseline and with his serves, his erratic nature means he can lose control of his powerful groundstrokes for short periods of time and concede the unforced errors Otte may need to find a break of serve or two.
With the price on his moneyline drifting all the way back to a pick ’em from being as expensive as -130, it’s well worth staking a position on him to win.
Pick: Otte ML (-110 via BetMGM)
Roberto Bautista Agut (-180) vs. Tallon Griekspoor (+140)
11:30 a.m. ET
The next match features the veteran Roberto Bautista Agut taking on the ascending Tallon Griekspoor for the final spot in Halle’s quarterfinals.
It’s the Spaniard’s first tournament back since Madrid and only second back since Miami at the end of March as he has been dealing with injury issues.
He showed no signs of any nagging injury in his opening round encounter with Marton Fucsovics though. He was dominant both on serve, and on return, racing out to a 6-2, 3-0 lead before Fucsovics retired for a second straight match.
While not reading into that match too much, it’s still encouraging to see Bautista Agut look fit and back to his old ways on quicker surfaces.
Next up for him is Griekspoor, who used a momentum-shifting tiebreak against Alex Molcan to advance. He saved six set points – including several when Molcan was serving – and took the tiebreak, before breaking Molcan in his first service game in the second set.
That’s all he would need to move on.
Ultimately, Bautista Agut presents a much tougher opponent for Griekspoor for a few reasons than the Slovakian did.
First, he has the requisite defensive and ball-retrieval abilities to wait out errors as Molcan had.
Second, while not being a lefty, his backhand is reliable on a consistent basis and can be a weapon on grass, so he can also pick on that part of Griekspoor’s game as the southpaw attempted to do last round.
The difference is in comfort and experience on the surface.
Bautista Agut is far more adept on quicker surfaces, he can still return and he has the athleticism to move around the grass courts efficiently. He’s also made the second week of Wimbledon in his last three attempts – including a four-set semifinal loss in 2019 to a certain Novak Djokovic.
With matchup, surface and experience advantages, I’ll lay the games with Bautista Agut.
Pick: Bautista Agut -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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