Thursday ATP Tennis Odds and Betting Analysis: Jenson Brooksby a Good Bet in Atlanta (July 28)
Ryan Pierse/Getty Images. Pictured: Jenson Brooksby.
- There are plenty of ATP tennis matchups on Thursday, and we see betting value on a couple of them.
- Those value-filled matches include Jenson Brooksby vs. Mackenzie McDonald and Fucundo Bagnis vs. Corentin Moutet.
- Check out Jon Reid's full betting breakdown and picks below.
The second round at the ATP events in Umag, Croatia and Atlanta, Georgia is set to wrap up on Thursday and we’ve got a pair of matches worth betting.
Let’s take a look at a match from each event, with one favorite and one underdog standing out!
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Corentin Moutet (-180) vs. Facundo Bagnis (+144)
11:30 a.m. ET
This is an interesting matchup here, and the price certainly seems to be at least a bit off.
After a strong performance in the first round (that cost us the over as an underdog winning outright), Facundo Bagnis is a solid dog once again, this time to Frenchman Corentin Moutet.
For my money, that just doesn’t make sense for a variety of factors.
If we want to look at the stylistic matchup, we have a pair of incredibly consistent southpaws with strong baseline rally tolerance as the foundation of their games.
It would be tough to identify the strongest weapon on court in this one, as neither has a particularly potent groundstroke. They both play with plenty of spin as well, so at the very least, this match appears to be a dead even one.
Though if we factor in experience and comfort on the red dirt, the advantage here actually goes to the Argentine. Bagnis is about as much of a clay-court specialist as you’ll find on tour and has played hundreds more matches on the surface.
Coming off a strong win against another one of the Challenger Tour’s better clay courters in Tomas Martin Etcheverry — whose forehand can be a problem for opponents — Bagnis has looked strong in Umag this week.
Moutet has also played well, but like the rest of his season on the clay, most of his wins have come against lower-level opposition. Bagnis may not be a stud at the tour level, but he’s certainly an established ATP 250 kind of player.
Pick: Bagnis ML (+144 via FanDuel)
Jenson Brooksby (-190) vs. Mackenzie McDonald (+155)
4:20 p.m. ET
American hard courts. Jenson Brooksby’s bread and butter. It’s hard to explain, but all of his success in the 2022 season has come at tournaments that fit into that category.
Outside of his third-round run at Wimbledon, his best tournament results have come in Dallas on indoor hard courts, as well as at the Sunshine Double consisting of events at Indian Wells and in Miami (he also made a deep run at a Challenger event indoors in Columbus).
Now acclimated to the Atlanta courts following a dominant win against Benoit Paire, he’s got a terrific chance to advance to an ATP quarterfinal against Mackenzie McDonald.
While the former UCLA product does prefer playing on quicker courts, McDonald should still struggle to hit through Brooksby’s defenses without a real weapon in his arsenal.
This is the picture-perfect matchup for Brooksby, whose variety should help him construct points. His defenses should also prove to be too much for his fellow American.
Even on faster courts, I have this line closer to -3.5 games in the -110 to -115 range. McDonald should find his fair share of holds, but his serve isn’t strong enough that this line should be under -3 — even if the -2.5 is a bit juiced.
Pick: Brooksby -2.5 (-120 via FanDuel)