Ilya Ivashka & Mikael Ymer ATP Winston-Salem Final Pick: Find Value in Match Total (Saturday, August 28)

Ilya Ivashka & Mikael Ymer ATP Winston-Salem Final Pick: Find Value in Match Total (Saturday, August 28) article feature image
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Credit: Grant Halverson, Getty. Mikael Ymer hits a defensive forehand in the ATP Winston-Salem Open.

  • The ATP Winston-Salem final takes place Saturday with Ilya Ivashka taking on Mikael Ymer.
  • The tournament has been a wild one for both players, who have played some very solid tennis en route to the final.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the match below and shares a betting pick and prediction based on his analysis.

Though the Winston-Salem Open is rightfully being overshadowed by the hype of the upcoming U.S. Open, the event has provided some players with opportunities to display ridiculously high levels of play.

No one has taken advantage of New York’s final warm-up event in better fashion than Ilya Ivashka, who has played stunning tennis en route to the final. In 11 sets of play, Ivashka has faced only 11 break points, all of them to Marin Cilic in the second round.

The Belarusian won’t have an easy task on Saturday, though, as he’ll be up against Mikael Ymer. The Swede has been in sneaky good form recently, narrowly losing to Casper Ruud in Kitzbuhel after serving for the match and striking the ball beautifully in his upset win over Carlos Alcaraz yesterday.

Additionally, both players are seeking their first ATP titles, adding a bit of importance to the final.

Read on to see how we’re capping the matchup.

Ilya Ivashka vs. Mikael Ymer

5:00 p.m. ET

Tennis is a funny game sometimes. The mental factors in the sport are massive, and they can produce puzzling outcomes time and time again. I expect severe mental impacts on both players in this contest.

Ivashka has had a phenomenal 2021 season thus far, so his title berth should come only as a marginal surprise. But his level in this tournament? Astounding.

The Belarusian is playing the best tennis he’s played in his career, breezing through service games behind a massive first serve and thriving on flat and deep groundstrokes.

It’s a situation in which he’s almost playing too well. Ivashka will endure serious pressure when he tries to maintain his form in one of the biggest matches of his life, and that could play a massive factor in the match.

If he isn’t able to find his A-game, the door becomes open for Ymer.

The 22-year-old has played superb tennis to get to his first final, much like Ivashka, though he hasn’t found it as easy as the Belarusian has to get through matches.

He comes into the match as a heavy dog, without displaying any serious flaws throughout the tournament. That factor will take a lot of pressure off of Ymer’s shoulders.

With all of this being said, I still give the edge to Ivashka to take the crown, but it won’t be as straightforward as the line suggests.

There’s a significant amount of value in the total. If Ymer can take advantage of any drop that comes from the other side of the court, the match could turn into a slugfest.

If Ivashka maintains his form? Then he’ll have played one of the best individual tournaments of the year. It’s hard to envision a first-time finalist doing that.

Pick: Over 21.5 games +105 (DraftKings)

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