Australian Open Third Round Odds, Best Bets, Picks | American Matches Headline Play
Mackenzie Sweetnam/Getty. Pictured: J.J. Wolf.
Looking for Saturday match picks? Click here!
We’re just eight matches away in each of the singles draws from having the field set for the second week of the Australian Open.
There are some intriguing matchups from both the men’s and women’s draws, and we’ll take a look at one from each that presents a decent betting opportunity.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Australian Open matches.
Australian Open Odds, Best Bets & Picks
J.J. Wolf (-300) vs. Michael Mmoh (+235)
10:30 p.m. ET
We’ll start with the all-American matchup that will send one of these two men to their maiden appearance in the second week of a Grand Slam.
It should be a fun one for fans as well, with two polar opposite styles of play on display, as J.J. Wolf looks to play that in-your-face, first-strike power tennis, and Michael Mmoh is happy to absorb that pace, move the ball around and wear you down.
Mmoh is making the most of his lucky loser status. He a qualifier – and fellow baseline wall – Laurent Lokoli, before capitalizing on an iteration of Alex Zverev who is still far from his best.
Wolf, meanwhile, took down Diego Schwartzman (the Argentine also not playing at 100% at the moment) and tricky Aussie Jordan Thompson the round prior.
Considering how hit-or-miss Wolf’s attacking game can be, how many balls Mmoh can make him play and the likelihood each guy can find at least a set by exerting their game style for a prolonged period, I really like the over at 37.5.
Further, I think Mmoh is still undervalued in the betting markets. As an elite mover and defender, the 25-year old has been sidelined consistently by injuries the last few years, meaning many aren’t quite as familiar with his game. I’m not sure he should be such a big underdog in this spot.
Pick: Over 37.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | Mmoh ML (+235 via DraftKings)
Ekaterina Alexandrova (-180) vs. Magda Linette (+145)
5 a.m. ET
Speaking of players vying for their first appearance in the second week of a Grand Slam, Ekaterina Alexandrova and Magda Linette square off for one of those coveted 16 spots in the women’s draw.
It’s the Russian’s fifth attempt to clear that hurdle, while Linette is trying for the seventh time to move past the third round at a slam.
I was burned the other day backing the big-hitting Alexandrova against American Taylor Townsend, but I like how short her spread is again this round for a few reasons.
First, Townsend’s spins and drop shots were giving the 28-year old fits. Not only was she drawing errors from Alexandrova, but some were only getting halfway up the net. It took an adjustment, but once said adjustment was made, it was one-way traffic.
Secondly, Townsend had been firing some of the biggest serves the women’s draw had seen this week throughout her first two matches, and that can be tough when the first serves are landing at a decent clip.
Finally, Alexandrova was broken three times in the opening set. One came from 40-15 up, and another from 40-0.
All in all, the circumstances in which she failed to cover will be tough to replicate for a counterpuncher and decent, but not huge server in Linette.
Throw in the fact that Alexandrova still has the power advantage and you’re getting plus money this time around for the same spread, and I’m going back to the well.
Pick: Alexandrova -3.5 games (+110 via PointsBet)