Cam Norrie vs. David Goffin Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Prediction (July 5)

Norrie vs. Goffin Odds

Two of the hardest workers on a tennis court will come face to face on Tuesday when David Goffin plays Cam Norrie at Wimbledon for a spot in the semifinals.

While Goffin has rattled off some impressive victories in quick succession, Norrie has gone about his business without issue. Could the fresher player be the one who takes his place in the last four?

Let's dive into this one.

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Goffin Thriving On Atypical Surface

This will be the second time that Goffin's reached the quarterfinals here at Wimbledon.

The last time he made it this far was also the last time he played the tournament in 2019, but after several hard fights he was ultimately destroyed by eventual champion Novak Djokovic.

While this year's run doesn't directly mirror that one, there are some similarities when you look at the fact that Goffin needed to go five with Daniil Medvedev and four with Fernando Verdasco to reach the quarters.

This year, he had to battle Ugo Humbert in a taxing four-set match and come from two sets to one down against Frances Tiafoe.

The Belgian is playing at a super level, but there are two things to digest here.

First of all would be the fact that, historically, grass just hasn't been Goffin's surface. Though he's displayed a level of comfort on the surface, he's had no real weapon in any of his wins, and he likely should have lost both to Tiafoe and Humbert.

The Frenchman led 5-2 in the fourth set before folding and giving the match away. Tiafoe had break points at 5-5 in the fifth before ultimately losing, and he also had a 2-1 lead in the match.

The second would be the fatigue factor. Goffin hasn't played this much tennis in a long time, and over the last two months he's put a ton of matches on his body. He can't be feeling fresh.  

Norrie Displaying Quality Mental And Physical Game

Norrie is one of the most frustrating players to face on tour. He is relentless on the court and never stops hustling to chase down balls.

He makes very few errors. In a way, he's this generation's version of David Goffin, though he's probably better than Goffin was at his peak.

Grass hasn't historically been Norrie's best surface, but if you look at the seasons he was failing to produce a winning record on the surface, he really wasn't playing great tennis in general.

The last two seasons have been ones to remember for the Brit, who broke into the top 10 and has not dropped his level whatsoever.

Norrie's flat backhand is pretty tough to get back on this surface, skidding off the grass and coming in very low. His serve has been on point, and coming from a lefty it can be very tricky on a right-handed player.

He's also had just one struggle this week, and it was against Jaume Munar in an epic five-setter. Other than that, Norrie hasn't dropped a set despite playing a couple of tricky opponents in the last two rounds.

Betting Value

Norrie is in better form, he's more talented, and he's a lot fresher than his opponent. He's absolutely mowing down the competition and feeding off the crowd's energy, and I have a hard time seeing him to lose to anyone not named Rafa, Novak or Nick.

I expect the over to be a popular call here given how few mistakes both men make, but I have some serious questions about Goffin's ability to hit his backhand consistently.

Norrie is going to hit his high-bouncing forehand into the Goffin backhand and tempt him to go for winners, and he's misfired plenty when he's gone for it in his last two matches.

We've also seen Goffin donate breaks in his last two matches and completely lose his focus and his level. You can't afford to do that against a ruthless competitor like Norrie, and I expect the Brit to finish this inside of five sets.

With that, I'll take the spread.

Pick: Norrie -3.5 games (-130)