Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Odds, Pick, Predictions | US Open Expert Preview

Alcaraz vs Zverev Odds

The second US Open men's quarterfinal on Wednesday features defending champion Carlos Alcaraz against his toughest test of the tournament, former World No. 2 Alexander Zverev.

Can we learn anything from the previous meetings between these two, or is Alcaraz in the driver's seat on his way to the semifinals? Let's break it down in our Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev preview and prediction.

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Alcaraz on Different Talent Tier

The defending champ hasn't had to play much defense through four rounds here in Queens, which is what he deserves after an incredible stretch of tennis over the last calendar year. He has dropped just one set this tournament, to the pesky Dan Evans, and multiple times has come from a break down to take a set.

His last match against Italian Matteo Arnaldi was much closer than folks had anticipated, and perhaps that has people doubting the Spaniard just the slightest bit.

Still, Alcaraz is essentially the co-favorite with Novak Djokovic to win this tournament, and not much has changed since we forecasted this draw before the tournament.

There is no one in the field with more skill than Alcaraz, who hits a gigantic ball and couples it with exceptional feel and speed. His biggest obstacles are always those who can match his power and those who can dominate him mentally, and there are very few of the former and only one of the latter — Novak Djokovic.

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Zverev Finding Best Level

Zverev proclaimed himself "back" after his epic fourth-round win over Jannik Sinner, and it's hard to disagree with him. The German was at a top-five level prior to suffering a gruesome injury at Roland Garros last year, and he's spent the last year slowly working his way back to full health.

His win over Sinner didn't come as a shock to anyone who's watched him at this tournament. He's been landing his first serves at ridiculous rates — which has always been his calling card — and his backhand has done a ton of damage against quality opponents. He's won back-to-back physical wars with Sinner and Grigor Dimitrov, but Zverev thrives in matches like that.

He did struggle to finish the win over Sinner, but that was due to adverse playing conditions in the heat and humidity. I don't have any fear that he will come out flat in this match.

Alcaraz vs Zverev Pick

These two have met a total of five times with Zverev taking three of the meetings. The German took their only meeting at a Grand Slam, which was in the quarterfinal at Roland Garros last year, though Alcaraz owns a victory in their most recent meeting earlier this year in Madrid.

The consensus is that Zverev's favorable head-to-head history doesn't matter in this matchup because two of his three wins over Alcaraz came in 2021, when Alcaraz had not yet developed into the top talent he is today.

Last year at Roland Garros, however, Alcaraz was the co-favorite entering the tournament. He's won two Grand Slams since then, but his level was just as hard to overcome in that match. Zverev won in four sets by grinding out Alcaraz from the baseline.

Their most recent meeting in Madrid was a bit of a head-turner, but Zverev struggled against even Roberto Carballes Baena in that tournament and was nowhere near his best. He came out of the locker room looking flat and defeated, knowing he would not have the level for Alcaraz on that day.

This matchup will be different on Wednesday given the way he's played in Queens.

At least for the beginning of this match, Zverev will throw plenty of offense at Alcaraz and have him on his back foot. The Spaniard hasn't had to face a level like this in quite some time, and Zverev's recent wins over high quality opposition should have his game tuned up for this one.

While playing nine sets in the span of four days may eventually catch up to Zverev, he has a puncher's chance against Alcaraz on a day where both men are fit.

As a result, I love taking the games here. Zverev has every chance to win this match, and he will come out with full confidence that he can do so.

Pick: Zverev +5.5 games (+100)