Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Odds, Prediction, Picks | Australian Open Quarterfinal Preview

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Odds, Prediction, Picks | Australian Open Quarterfinal Preview article feature image

Xinhua News Agency/Getty. Pictured: Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev.

Alcaraz vs Zverev Odds, Prediction

Alcaraz Odds-475
Zverev Odds+360
Over/Under36.5 (-115 / -105)
Time | How to WatchWednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET | ESPN
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Our second quarterfinal of the day on the men's side at the Australian Open will feature one of the most anticipated matchups of the tournament when World No. 6 Alexander Zverev looks for another win over World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz.

With both men playing incredibly tight matches versus one another in the last couple of years, can we expect another cracking affair on Tuesday night?

Read on for my Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev prediction.

Alcaraz Showing His Class in Melbourne

Alcaraz has been nothing short of brilliant in the third Australian Open of his career. After failing to reach the third round here in his first two trips and missing last season's tournament due to injury, the Spaniard has displayed a masterful level of tennis through four rounds, dropping just one set along the way.

While all of that is well and good, it's hard to say Alcaraz has faced anyone who can really bother him on the tennis court. That should change when one of the biggest hitters and servers on tour steps on the other end of the court Tuesday night — one who has defeated him four times in seven meetings.

The key here for Alcaraz will be his ability to influence the Zverev serve. While we've seen him conjure up plenty of break chances through four rounds, Alcaraz went just 6-for-11 on break points in his two sets against an injured Jerry Shang, 3-for-6 against Lorenzo Sonego and just 4-for-16 against Richard Gasquet in the first round. It will be imperative that Alcaraz takes the few chances he has against one of the best servers in the world, and with fleeting success up break point it's fair to question just how much of a foothold he can take in this match.

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Zverev Looking For French Open Repeat

The big-serving German has to feel good about his chances entering this match. He defeated Alcaraz just a couple of months ago at the year-end ATP Finals to give him a 4-3 head-to-head advantage over the World No. 2, and he was the man who stopped Alcaraz from winning his first-ever title at Roland Garros in 2022 when the Spaniard entered as a co-favorite with Novak Djokovic.

Sure, Alcaraz did dispatch Zverev in straight sets at last year's Madrid Open and again last year at the US Open, but Zverev spent most of 2023 working his way back from a gruesome ankle injury he ironically suffered just days after taking out Alcaraz at the 2022 French Open. On top of that, while his level improved dramatically by the end of the season, which was enough to see him through Jannik Sinner in the fourth round of the US Open, his conditioning was not quite there when he faced Alcaraz in the following round.

Even then, the match was relatively even through two sets before fatigue and a daunting 2-0 lead to Alcaraz in the matchup took its toll. This has historically been a very tight head-to-head, and with the way Zverev is serving this week there's little to suggest this iteration will be all that different.

Alcaraz vs Zverev Prediction

Had Zverev been fully fit in last year's US Open quarterfinal against Alcaraz, I do think that match would have been a bit more competitive and gone at least four sets. Had that been the case, with his win in their next match at the ATP Finals, I think you'd see this line look a lot different than it does now.

Alcaraz's level at the moment is special, and it's downright terrifying to stomach drinking juice to fade him. Zverev to win two sets at +175 looks somewhat attractive, but I think the safer play here is to bet on the total.

Zverev's serve has been dialed in for the last couple of rounds after some shaky showings in his first two matches at the Australian Open, and with some questions about Alcaraz's ability to convert break points I do think this match will feature a ton of holds.

The way to bet this, then, is looking at the total. 36.5 games simply are not enough to account for a server of Zverev's magnitude, and I don't forsee a straight-sets win here for Alcaraz given how closely these two have played each other over the years.

Pick: Over 36.5 games (-115)

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