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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Frances Tiafoe US Open Odds, Preview, Prediction (September 8)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Frances Tiafoe US Open Odds, Preview, Prediction (September 8) article feature image
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Anadolu Agency/Getty. Pictured: Frances Tiafoe and Carlos Alcaraz.

  • Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe are set to square off with a spot in the US Open on the line.
  • Alcaraz is favored to get past the American.
  • Read on for Kenny Ducey's betting preview of the match.

Alcaraz vs. Tiafoe Odds

Alcaraz Odds -210
Tiafoe Odds +170
Total 39.5 (-110 / -110)
Time | How to Watch 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

History will be made at this year’s US Open, and the winner of the event could very well come out of this semifinal between two rising young stars.

Carlos Alcaraz – at just 19-years old – is making his long-awaited debut in a Grand Slam semifinal and is just two wins away from the first of what should be many Slam titles.

Frances Tiafoe – five years his elder – is the first American man to reach the semis at the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2006.

You’ll certainly be watching one of the most anticipated matches of the Championships. How do you bet it?

Let’s take a look at this matchup.

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Alcaraz Somehow Still Underrated

Alcaraz is the best tennis player in the world right now. While there are some active legends who have accomplished more — as recently as this season — you would not pick anyone to win a match ahead of this sensational teenager.

The Spaniard entered the US Open with some questionable results in the recent Masters 1000s and a dud at Wimbledon, but he’s answered every question asked about him.

Alcaraz has proven he has the gas tank to play best-of-five tennis, going five sets in back-to-back rounds and finishing past 2 a.m. ET in both matches. He’s beaten some tricky opponents along the way in Marin Cilic and Jenson Brooksby. He’s ready for his moment.

His last match against Jannik Sinner is one which will be remembered for a long time, and it was one which should tell you all you need to know about this upcoming match. Alcaraz painted lines, fought his heart out and figured out how to return the Sinner serve in the fifth set. He came back from two sets to one down and saved match point along the way.

Above all else, Alcaraz went toe-to-toe with just about the only player in the world who could match the pace on his forehand.

He also forced a fifth set without any sort of feel on his drop shot before finding it in the fifth. It was an incredible fight for many reasons, but the fact that he faced an opponent who was serving incredibly and firing forehands and won without his best game for four sets should give him supreme confidence.

Tiafoe On a Special Journey

As he’s done for the last few years, Tiafoe has risen his level to a true top-15 standing during the North American hardcourt swing. This time, however, he’s been able to maintain that level of play and achieve his best result yet in a Grand Slam.

The 24-year-old has earned a whole lot of new fans with his exciting play, and along the way he took out Rafael Nadal and Andrey Rublev — two of the top 10 players in the world. He’s brought plenty of points to the net and used his deft touch to win them.

Tiafoe has mixed that in with a great backhand return and a serve that’s topped out at 137 miles per hour.

His only weakness at this point in the tournament, aside from nerves, would be his fitness. Never before has he gone this deep in a Grand Slam, and in Grand Slams in the past he’s simply run out of gas. Though he’s dropped just one set this tournament, it’s worth noting that following his win over Andrey Rublev last year, he rolled over against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

In order to win this match, Tiafoe will need to rely heavily on his serve and play the brand of tennis he’s played in the last two matches, which was predicated on limiting unforced errors.

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Betting Value

That is precisely the issue I have with backing Tiafoe in this match. In order for Sinner to gain footing in Wednesday’s clash with Alcaraz, he had to paint every line. It had to be too good to win points from the baseline against Alcaraz, and even then he didn’t win the majority of them.

Sinner’s serve was a big factor, and for the second, third and fourth sets Alcaraz was having a whale of a time returning it. It’s worth noting that he bookended the match with great returning in the first and final sets, and he also has returned very well over the course of his career.

I think Alcaraz is simply a better and more talented player than Tiafoe, and I think by forcing him to go for lines he’s going to win a ton of points and get a ton of unforced errors out of the Tiafoe racquet.

There’s also a big difference between facing Rafa, who was slightly hurt, and Rublev, who has bad hands, and Alcaraz. The former two could easily be beaten at the net, and Alcaraz — with his elite speed and hands — will not.

Simply put, Alcaraz does everything better than Tiafoe, other than serve. I think this match goes to the Spaniard inside of five sets.

Pick: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-130)

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