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Casper Ruud vs. Ugo Humbert Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Prediction (June 29)

Casper Ruud vs. Ugo Humbert Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Prediction (June 29) article feature image
Credit:

John Berry/Getty. Pictured: Ugo Humbert.

  • French Open finalist Casper Ruud is favored to get past Ugo Humbert at Wimbledon.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the second round match.
  • Read on to see his best bet and analysis for the fascinating contest.

Ruud vs. Humbert Odds

Ruud Odds -150
Humbert Odds +125
Total 39.5 (-105 / -115)
Time | How to Watch 6:00 a.m. ET | ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Casper Ruud is developing into a household name after he was able to reach finals in Miami and Paris this year, but he’s played like anything but that in the last few weeks on the grass.

The young Norwegian enters his second-round encounter against Ugo Humbert, a player who has fallen out of the top 100, as a short favorite. Is this the correct pricing?

Let’s figure that out.

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Ruud Uncomfortable On Grass

Ruud is becoming one of the most confusing players in the world. He’s currently ranked No. 6 in the world, and a run to the final of Roland Garros coupled with a Masters 1000 win and two clay-court titles would have you believing that this is the same dominant player we saw a year ago.

He’s undergone several changes, though, to improve his hardcourt game.

It appears those worked, but what’s left of Ruud is a guy with a confusing blend of skills, whereas who we knew at the beginning of last year was a very straightforward clay-dominant player with a massive forehand.

Ruud’s run to Roland Garros wasn’t without its hiccups, and it appears those hiccups haven’t yet gone away.  He fell in straight sets to a very inferior player in Ryan Peniston in his first grass match, and then again to Zizou Bergs in a grass exhibition. He snuck by Carlos Alcaraz, a player who was not giving the match 100% due to injury, according to reports.

All of that culminated in one of the more embarrassing straight-set wins you could have drawn up. Ruud played a clay specialist in 34-year-old Albert Ramos-Vinolas and needed two tiebreaks to get the first two sets.

That includes a 20-point breaker in the second, before the Spaniard ultimately ran out of energy.

It speaks to how bad Ruud is on quick courts such as these.

Humbert Looking To Overcome Tough Year

The nightmare season continues for Humbert, a 24-year-old with a wealth of talent who made it up to No. 25 in the world before an epic collapse culminated in the Frenchman falling to No. 112 prior to Wimbledon.

Humbert is just 7-17 this season, and he is just 2-3 on his beloved grass. He had a rather acceptable loss against Hubert Hurkavz in Halle, but losing to Thiago Monteiro in Eastbourne and needing five sets against Tomas Etcheverry really doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Humbert was 8-6 on grass when first stepping on the surface in 2019 and last season was one of the most in-form grass players in the world with a title in Halle and an 8-2 record in total.

It’s worth noting here that Humbert has reveled in playing the best in the world. He’s an impressive 6-5 against top-10 players in his career with one of those wins coming earlier this year against Daniil Medvedev in a match where he trailed by a set and a break.

Betting Value

Aside from the fact that Ruud is not good on grass and has had some troubling matches to date, this is a nightmare matchup for the World No. 6.

Ruud’s backhand is atrocious, and a glaring weakness which just about every player on tour tries to exploit. Humbert is a lefty, meaning he will be pummeling a forehand into the Ruud backhand all match long. On grass, this is going to be a disaster for Ruud.

Humbert’s massive serve is the reason he’s been able to have success on grass, and that should help tighten the margins here. I have no faith in Ruud’s ability to break multiple times given his stubbornness on return and his inability to make in-match adjustments.

As crazy as it is to say, one of the biggest busts on tour is in line for a huge win here at Wimbledon.

Pick: Humbert +125

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