US Open Odds, Picks for Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev

Medvedev vs Rublev Odds

Another chapter will be written in the storied rivalry between Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev on Wednesday afternoon at the US Open. The two longtime friends will vie for a spot in Friday's semifinals, just as they have in two other Grand Slams in their careers.

Will the head-to-head tell the story here, or does the underdog Rublev have a fighting chance?

Let's break it all down in my Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev pick and US Open expert preview.

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Medvedev Rounding Into Form

There were some questions about the World No. 3 entering this tournament. Despite being arguably the most dominant player in the world over the past four hard court seasons, Medvedev suffered a shocking defeat to Alex de Minaur in the Toronto quarterfinals then lost in just his second match in Cincinnati to Alexander Zverev.

Medvedev's dominance on hard courts earlier in the season seemed like a distant memory, but he's quickly reminded us here at the US Open of how good he is. He dropped just one set through three matches, and in the fourth round exorcised his de Minaur demons by defeating the Aussie from a set down.

The Russian's serve failed to find its mark in his second-round win over Chris O'Connell – the only match he seemed to really have any difficulty winning – but aside from that he's been at 62% or better for the tournament. He also won an impressive 71% of net points against de Minaur in the fourth round and won in spite of 32 unforced errors. It's hard to say he's playing his best tennis, but he's looked hard to beat here at the US Open regardless.

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Rublev Looking to Break Through

Rublev was another player who was in a bit of slump before finding some form through four rounds here at the US Open. He entered on a three-match losing streak, falling to Mackenzie McDonald and Emiil Ruusuvuori in the second round of both Toronto and Cincinnati, but he came through a difficult draw to get to this point. He dusted a talented tennis prospect in Arthur Cazaux and won in four sets versus Gael Monfils and Arthur Rinderknech.

The World No. 8 hasn't looked quite himself here despite the wins. He should have really taken care of Jack Draper in three sets given the chances he had early in the match and given the adverse playing conditions. His forehand has coughed up 73 unforced errors through four rounds and he's hit 65 winners off of that wing. He'll need a better showing if he wants to finally find a way through Medvedev.

His second serve, which has been a concern in the past, looked great against Draper as he won 66% of points behind it. It should be said, however, that Draper had little on return after his body gave out in the third set from all the tennis he played.

Medvedev vs Rublev Pick

Medvedev owns Rublev. The two have met eight times, and Rublev has won just twice. One of those wins came at the year-end finals in 2022, a tournament which I rarely put much stock into given the progressive fatigue of a long tennis season and the wild variance of the event on a yearly basis.

Medvedev has also won both Grand Slam matches contested between the two in straight sets, and those came at the quarterfinal stage, where Rublev is 0-8 in his career. His relentless groundstrokes from the back of the court are able to get many players on the back foot, but against an elite defender like Medvedev he hasn't had much success in his career.

While I think Rublev may be able to take a set this time around, the matchup here is rather damning. Rublev should not be able to produce much offense against the defense of Medvedev, especially considering the slower conditions that we are experiencing here at the US Open. This should also be a very hot match, reminiscent of Rublev's loss to Medvedev at the 2021 Australian Open.

Head-to-head can dictate the proceedings quite a bit in tennis; both players are well aware of the clash in play styles and the amount of matches that have gone Medvedev's way. The master strategist should once again prove to be a brick wall Rublev cannot penetrate, and I have him winning inside of five sets.

Pick: Medvedev -1.5 sets (-110)