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Friday ATP Tennis Odds & Picks: Back Cerundolo & Murray to Excel as Favorites

Friday ATP Tennis Odds & Picks: Back Cerundolo & Murray to Excel as Favorites article feature image
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Christian Kaspar-Bartke/Getty. Pictured: Andy Murray.

As we enter the later stages of the tournaments following Wimbledon, we will look to find value on rising players and familiar matchups.

With quarterfinals being played in Bastad and Newport on Friday, there is sure to be plenty of high-quality tennis.

Let’s dive in to where I believe we can take advantage of the lines.

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Francisco Cerundolo (-138) vs. Aslan Karatsev (+112)

5 a.m. ET

Francisco Cerundolo and Aslan Karatsev are slated to meet in the quarterfinals of Bastad.

Cerundolo produced an impressive effort to get by the top seed and defending champion Casper Ruud. Meanwhile, Karatsev handled the tricky Hugo Gaston quite well to reach this stage.

Karatsev has never preferred the clay, and a 1-6 record on the surface prior to Bastad meant a run here was looking unlikely. Regardless, he has found wins against two high quality opponents, though he’ll face an increase in difficulty here.

Despite recent allegations on match-fixing, Karatsev has remained focused on his game and will look to again tomorrow.

Finding revenge on the man who halted his dream run at the Miami Open, Cerundolo is a real threat to make a dark-horse run for the title here.

When Cerundolo is on, he can hang with the best. Highlighted by his Miami Open run and making Nadal’s opening round at Wimbledon much more difficult than many would have expected, he is a capable opponent, particularly on clay.

The Argentine is much more comfortable on this surface than Karatsev. He had a 17-9 record entering this tournament on the year. He holds a Challenger title and an ATP 500 semi-final on the surface in 2022.

I strongly expect that Cerundolo’s comfort and class on clay will be far too much for Karatsev. If he produces anywhere near the level of tennis he did against Ruud, we should see a straightforward win for the Argentine.

Pick: Cerundolo ML (-138 via FanDuel)

Andy Murray (-184) vs. Alexander Bublik (+154)

2 p.m. ET

These two players are becoming quite familiar with one another. Meeting for the fourth time in 2022 and the second time on grass, we should be in for a show.

Murray has won two of the three matches between the two this year, with one meeting occurring on the grass of Stuttgart. Although all three matches have ended in straight sets, each one has reached a tiebreak in a set.

We’ll see a contrast in styles from Bublik’s powerful but erratic game clashing with Murray’s consistent counterpunching, so the player executing their strategy better will win the match.

Despite the power that Bublik possesses, I believe the grass courts favor Murray. As evidenced from their matchup in Stuttgart, Murray found success deflecting Bublik’s pace and using it as his own to come up with terrific passing shots.

Bublik is always susciptible to mental let-downs, especially in a location where the wind can be a factor. He claimed that playing tennis in the wind is not real tennis when playing Frances Tiafoe earlier in the year.

Expect a similar outcome on Friday. Murray should be able to find his way through Bublik if he is striking the ball well, and Bublik doesn’t have the consistency to thrive in this match.

Pick: Murray -2.5 Games (-118 via FanDuel)

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