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Iga Swiatek vs. Danka Kovinic French Open Odds, Pick, Preview (May 28)

Iga Swiatek vs. Danka Kovinic French Open Odds, Pick, Preview (May 28) article feature image
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Alex Pantling/Getty. Pictured: Iga Swiatek hits a backhand at the Italian Open.

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Swiatek vs. Kovinic Odds

Swiatek Odds -7000
Kovinic Odds +2000
Over/Under 16.5
Time 6 a.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek destroyed Alison Riske in the second round of Roland Garros. Swiatek won 6-0, 6-2, winning the first nine games of the match.

Will Swiatek’s third round match against Danka Kovinic be another blowout?

Let’s look a little closer at this third round encounter.

Swiatek Keeps On Winning

Swiatek is putting together an incredible winning streak. Including Thursday’s win over Riske, Swiatek has won 30 matches in a row and 18 sets in a row.

In these 30 matches, the Pole has only dropped five sets total, meaning she’s won 60 sets and lost 5 during this stretch.

Between Swiatek’s win over Riske and her first-round victory over Lesia Tsurenko, she has only dropped four games in the two matches she’s played at Roland Garros. In these matches, she’s won over 55% of her first and second-serve return points and won 11 of the 14 return games she’s played.

On her own serve, Swiatek has faced just two break points during the French Open and she’s only been broken once. Swiatek has won a combined 39-of-49 of her first serves while serving over 60% first-serves in during both matches.

She’s hit 43 winners compared to 28 unforced errors. Swiatek’s controlled aggression has been superb at Roland Garros so far.

Despite winning her last three hard-court tournaments, Swiatek’s best surface is clay. The Pole has won 87% of her career clay court matches, including an 11-0 record this season and two titles (Stuttgart and Rome).

While Swiatek controls the baseline extraordinarily well from the forehand side, her backhand has also been a huge factor in her recent success. She’s able to play consistently from that wing, keeping her backhand deep in the court and limiting her opponents’ ability to attack that wing and get short balls.

Swiatek’s variety, whether it be her slice or drop shot, helps to keep her opponents off-balance.

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Kovinic Continuing Good Run Of Form

Kovinic is another player that loves the dirt. She has a 254-124 record on clay and has played terrific tennis at Roland Garros this week.

In the second round, Kovinic beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 6-3, 7-5. Kovinic won 73% of her first serves and saved 9-of-10 break points. She was also very solid on return, winning 42% of Schmiedlova’s first-serve points and breaking four times in the match.

Overall, including Kovinic’s first round win against Liudmilla Samsonova,  Kovinic has broken serve nine times, saving 14 out of 18 break points she’s faced. It’s been nothing spectacular for Kovinic, but she’s been solid playing with a fairly high level of controlled aggression in Paris so far.

Kovinic, as mentioned before, is a veteran clay courter. This season, Kovinic is an impressive 11-3, with a title at the ITF $100k in Wiesbaden. She has tried to be aggressive from both wings and control the baseline, especially from the forehand side. Kovinic understands, however, the need to be patient on clay and wait for her opportunity within points.

Betting Value

Kovinic will have her hands full in this match. While she has decent power from both wings and understands point construction on the surface, her groundstrokes aren’t quite big enough nor heavy enough to trouble Swiatek.

Swiatek’s defensive and counterpunching abilities are at such a high level, that Swiatek will be able to neutralize Kovinic’s groundstrokes and blunt her power. The Pole will shrink the court for Kovinic and force the Montenegrin to overhit.

She should be able to control the baseline with her forehand and force Kovinic into defensive positions on the court, where she’s less comfortable. Swiatek will also use her variety to throw Kovinic out of rhythm and keep her on her toes.

And while Kovinic will attempt to attack the Swiatek backhand, Swiatek is hitting that stroke with such consistent depth that this won’t prove to be an impactful tactic for Kovinic.

Swiatek should roll into the round of 16.

Pick:  Swiatek -7.5 games (-140)

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