Iga Swiatek vs. Ons Jabeur US Open Final Preview & Pick: World No. 1 May Struggle With Crafty Opponent

Iga Swiatek vs. Ons Jabeur US Open Final Preview & Pick: World No. 1 May Struggle With Crafty Opponent article feature image

Tim Clayton-Corbis, Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur.

  • Iga Swiatek is favored to beat Ons Jabeur in the US Open final.
  • Will the world No. 1 roll over the Wimbledon finalist?
  • Read on for David Gertler's preview and prediction.

Swiatek vs. Jabeur Odds

Swiatek Odds-192
Jabeur Odds+158
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The US Open final has arrived, and it pits two of the most in-form players against each other.

Iga Swiatek, the world's No. 1 ranked player and French Open champion, will take on Ons Jabeur, the world No. 5 and Wimbledon finalist.

Here's everything you need to know about the big match, including a betting prediction.

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Swiatek vs. Jabeur Head-to-Head

The pair have met four times and are dead even with a 2-2 split. Most recently, Swiatek and Jabeur played in Rome, where the Pole dominated the proceedings and won 6-2, 6-2.

Swiatek and Jabeur first met on a hard court in Washington DC. A teenage Swiatek was able to get the better of the Tunisian there, winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.

In between those matches, Jabeur got her two wins, beating Swiatek in Cincinnati on a hard court and at Wimbledon.

Paths to the Final 

While Swiatek is a two-time Slam champion, both of those titles came at the French Open, which is played on clay. She had never gotten this deep in a Slam played on either a hard court or grass, so Swiatek has something to prove here.

Though the world No. 1 has faced challenges, she's battled well en route to the final. Swiatek recored straight-sets wins before facing a serious challenge in the round of 16.

German Jule Niemeier played big-hitting tennis to take a set and a break lead against Swiatek, but everything changed there. Swiatek steadied herself and clawed her way to a third set, where she outmatched a tired Niemeier and won 6-0.

After that, Swiatek got past American Jessica Pegula in a match that featured 13 breaks of serve before overcoming a set deficit and two break deficits in the third set against Aryna Sabalenka.

For Jabeur, things have been far more straight-forward. She knocked out two Americans with ease in the opening rounds before dropping her first set against another American, Shelby Rogers.

Jabeur turned it on in the second set, found her footing and got past Rogers in three. She then put together quality matches against Veronika Kudermetova and Ajla Tomljanovic. There were dips at times and she overcame break deficits in both, but Jabeur didn't drop a set.

Then, one of the best performances of her season was played against Caroline Garcia. The Frenchwoman was incredibly erratic are Jabeur steamrolled her, winning 6-1 6-3 and holding serve in each game she had.

Read on below for David Gertler's betting analysis of the Swiatek vs. Jabeur final.

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Betting Value

Swiatek has not played her best, but she’s managed to make the final, and that is what matters.

In her 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 semifinal victory over Sabalenka, Swiatek won 53% of her return points and broke serve seven times. However, Swiatek will need to shore up her own serve, as she only won 55% of her service points and was broken five times herself.

Jabeur played excellent tennis to dispatch Garcia.

Jabeur won 83% of her first-serve points and didn’t face a break point all match. On return, she held the big-serving Frenchwoman to 48% of her first serves won and broke serve four times.

Her game is firing on all cylinders, as she is absorbing power well, but also dominating from the baseline. The Tunisian has also done a great job moving the ball around the court and effectively utilizing her variety.

Swiatek has been streaky this tournament and her serve has struggled mightily. While she’s the more reliable player from the baseline than Jabeur long-term, her inability to get ahead during her service games will make this match closer than the odds predict. 

Jabeur getting that experience of making the Wimbledon final will also prove to be vital in helping calm her nerves in this match.

Expect a close final.

Pick: Jabeur +3.5 games (-130)

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