Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia French Open Odds, Pick | Semifinal Match Prediction

Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia French Open Odds, Pick | Semifinal Match Prediction article feature image

Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Iga Swiatek.

 Swiatek vs Haddad Maia Odds

Swiatek Odds-1800
 Haddad Maia Odds+900
Over/Under17.5 (-105 / -115)
Time | How to WatchThursday, 10:30 a.m. ET | Tennis Channel
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch the French Open, click here.

Thursday brings us women's semifinals day from Roland Garros. It's an absolutely loaded set of semifinalists, as each of the top-two seeds reached the final four, while two well-rounded and incredibly talented players step up to challenge them.

On Court Philippe-Chatrier, Iga Swiatek looks to extend her win streak at the French Open as she takes on the Brazilian southpaw, Beatriz Haddad Maia. Let's take a closer look at that one and see if there's any value to be had in betting the match.

Iga Swiatek Thriving in Preferred Conditions

Easily the most famous clay courter in the women's game at this point, Swiatek is looking for her third Roland Garros title at the age of 22. The 2020 and 2022 champ has yet to drop a set so far in Paris, and she's looked every bit as dominant as most expected coming in.

The reason lies in her incredibly heavy topspin game. She doesn't possess the most raw power behind her serve or her groundstrokes, but she does hit them with pop, and combined with the amount of spin she generates on the forehand wing, the acceleration off the court provides another offensive component to that shot.

In the slower conditions one finds in Paris or Rome, it's incredibly tough to beat her. She's consistent enough from the baseline, defends, moves and slides well and with that ability to generate offense, it can be tough to find a way through her. In fact, other than a retirement against Elena Rybakina in Rome a few weeks back (she led by a set and break at retired at 2-2 in the third), the last time Swiatek lost at either Roland Garros or the Foro Italico was the 2021 French Open quarterfinals.

That's not to say she can't be beaten, just that it's so much harder to accomplish when a match is played on the clay without any altitude or quicker courts to speed things up.

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Beatriz Haddad Maia Underrated But Likely Worn Down

Haddad Maia isn't nearly as well known, but she's not one to sleep on. Entering the event at No. 14 in the world, Haddad Maia will enter the top-10 on Monday, unless she loses this match and Karolina Muchova beats both Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek.

That's no coincidence, considering the tall Brazilian serves well, hits her forehand hard and with precision, moves decently relative to many other players of her size and can stick around in the longer exchanges from the baseline. That's a pretty well-rounded game and it's one that can be played on any surface.

The biggest knock on the 27-year old? Her ability to close matches with ease. In fact, if she's competitive here and fades down the stretch, it may be for that reason. After leading by a set and break in the second round against Diana Shnaider, Haddad Maia got dragged into a lengthy match. The same can be said for her match against Ekaterina Alexandrova, after she had to save a match point in the decider despite having led that third set by a double break.

Finally, she engaged in the longest match of the season on the women's side against Sara Sorribes Tormo in the fourth round. Haddad Maia had a double break lead in the opening set and ended up on court for nearly four hours.

All that time on court could come back to haunt her, but I do think she has the tools to beat Swiatek. After all, she managed to do just that in Toronto last summer. Now, can she replicate that on slow clay courts with a lot of tennis played? Not likely, but don't count her out.

Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Pick

It's not the smartest idea to fade Swiatek on slow clay, but I do think Haddad Maia is the most well-rounded player she's gone up against yet. She also matches up better (relatively speaking, no one matches up well with the world No. 1 in these conditions) than someone like Gauff – a match that saw the total a full game higher than this.

I'm worried about fatigue if Haddad Maia does keep things closer than expected, so instead of hitting the spread, I'll look to the over as a way to back the slightly undervalued Brazilian.

Pick: Over 17.5 games (-105 via DraftKings)

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