Flushing Meadows in September has a way of settling debates a whole season couldn't, and this year's storyline reads like two men circling the same throne. The defending champion returns to a Grand Slam draw he hasn't played all year. The season's most in-form player wants to turn 2026 into a lasting reign. That's the shape of Polymarket's 2026 Men's US Open Winner prediction market right now, and since this piece will keep updating as the tournament plays out, treat it as a running guide, not a single snapshot.
The Polymarket US Open Winner Prediction Market Right Now
Prediction markets work differently from a ranking or a bracket. Each player has a contract that trades based on how likely the crowd thinks they are to lift the trophy, and that price moves in real time with every match, injury update, or practice-court rumor.
Jannik Sinner, the man who was supposed to make this whole conversation moot, is out with a knee injury, and his absence alone rearranged the board, opening a gap three very different résumés are now racing to fill.
Carlos Alcaraz Returns to a Field That Moved On Without Him
Carlos Alcaraz still sits at the top of the market, and the résumé explains why: two of the past four US Open titles, including last year's, plus a run to the 2026 Australian Open crown that made him the youngest player in tennis history to complete all four majors.
In his opening-round match at Flushing Meadows, Alcaraz secured a victory against Russia's Roman Safiullin. Although he was pleased with the performance as his comeback progresses, there remains clear room for growth. His forehand and touch on drop shots were sharp, yet his serve lacked its signature power and consistency. Now, he is set to play against Portugal's Jaime Farias tomorrow at 11:00 AM EDT.
Alexander Zverev Looks to Turn a Career Season Into a Reign
While Alcaraz recovered from an ongoing wrist issue, the German quietly built the best season of his career: a first Grand Slam title at the French Open, then a run to the Wimbledon final, and now the tournament's top seed with Sinner out of the draw.
At 29, his height and serve have always suited hard courts, he was the 2020 US Open runner-up, and this season suggests he's finally put the full package together just as his biggest rivals are compromised.
The speculations end today, as Zverev opens his tournament play against Italy's Lorenzo Sonego.
The Shock Heard Around Queens: Novak’s Historic Exit
The tournament's first massive shock landed on Sunday evening. The tennis world was completely stunned when Mariano Navone pulled off a historic upset over 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic.
That monumental loss from the Serbian legend sent shockwaves through the Polymarket board, completely reshaping the standings. Right now, the third spot on the board previously held by Novak belongs to Ben Shelton, who boasts an 8% chance of taking the title at Flushing Meadows.
Who Else Could Make Noise in New York
As a result of Djokovic's early exit, Ben Shelton headlines the chasing pack.
The lefty American already has a US Open semifinal on his résumé from 2023, where Novak ended his run, and his serve remains one of the most dangerous weapons on any hard court.
Behind him sits a deep group worth watching: Taylor Fritz leads the American contingent on paper, Felix Auger-Aliassime has climbed into the top seeds, Daniil Medvedev brings the experience of a past final, and rising names like Rafael Jodar are drawing real attention from traders.
Who Could Win the US Open
If we had to pick a winner: it could be Zverev.
Alcaraz still owns the higher ceiling, but returning from a long layoff at a Slam that demands seven best-of-five matches is a tall ask for anyone.
Zverev arrives healthy, in form, and finally holding a major title that should quiet the doubts about his nerve in the biggest moments.
Still, this is exactly the kind of two-way standoff Flushing Meadows loves to complicate. New York will have the final say, the way it always does, and the market will keep moving with every match, and so will this page.
