Flushing Meadows in September has a way of settling debates a whole season couldn't, and this year's storyline reads like three men circling the same throne. The defending champion returns to a Grand Slam draw he hasn't played all year. The season's most in-form player wants to turn 2026 into a lasting reign. And a veteran king waits in the shadows, sensing an opening after the sudden exit of the man who was supposed to be the favorite. That's the shape of Polymarket's 2026 Men's US Open Winner prediction market right now, and since this piece will keep updating as the tournament plays out, treat it as a running guide, not a single snapshot.
The Polymarket US Open Winner Prediction Market Right Now
Prediction markets work differently from a ranking or a bracket. Each player has a contract that trades based on how likely the crowd thinks they are to lift the trophy, and that price moves in real time with every match, injury update, or practice-court rumor.
Jannik Sinner, the man who was supposed to make this whole conversation moot, is out with a knee injury, and his absence alone rearranged the board, opening a gap three very different résumés are now racing to fill.
Carlos Alcaraz Returns to a Field That Moved On Without Him
Carlos Alcaraz still sits at the top of the market, and the résumé explains why: two of the past four US Open titles, including last year's, plus a run to the 2026 Australian Open crown that made him the youngest player in tennis history to complete all four majors.
"Job finished. Four out of four complete," he wrote on a TV camera lens in Melbourne after the Australian Open. Since then, an ongoing wrist issue has kept him off tour for months, costing him both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. While he was out, one man in particular used the opening well.
Alexander Zverev Looks to Turn a Career Season Into a Reign
Alexander Zverev is that man.
While Alcaraz recovered, the German quietly built the best season of his career: a first Grand Slam title at the French Open, then a run to the Wimbledon final, and now the tournament's top seed with Sinner out of the draw.
At 29, his height and serve have always suited hard courts, he was the 2020 US Open runner-up, and this season suggests he's finally put the full package together just as his two biggest rivals are compromised.
Novak Djokovic Waits in the Shadows for Number 25
That's where Novak Djokovic comes in.
At 39, he's already stared down both Alcaraz and Sinner deep into majors this year and lost, most painfully in a four-set Australian Open final against Alcaraz that cost him a record 25th Grand Slam title.
A semifinal exit to Sinner at Wimbledon kept the drought going.
Still, Flushing Meadows remains one of his signature stages, third only to his tallies at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, with four titles here, most recently in 2023. With Sinner gone and Alcaraz undercooked, this may be Djokovic's cleanest look at history in years, if his body holds up over best-of-five matches against players half his age.
Who Else Could Make Noise in New York
Ben Shelton headlines the chasing pack.
The lefty American already has a US Open semifinal on his résumé from 2023, where Djokovic ended his run, and his serve remains one of the most dangerous weapons on any hard court.
Behind him sits a deep group worth watching: Arthur Fils arrives with recent title-winning form, Taylor Fritz leads the American contingent on paper, Felix Auger-Aliassime has climbed into the top seeds, Daniil Medvedev brings the experience of a past final, and rising names like Rafael Jodar are drawing real attention from traders.
Who Could Win the US Open
If we had to pick a winner: it could be Zverev.
Alcaraz still owns the higher ceiling, but returning from a long layoff at a Slam that demands seven best-of-five matches is a tall ask for anyone, and Djokovic's age works against him more with every extra set.
Zverev arrives healthy, in form, and finally holding a major title that should quiet the doubts about his nerve in the biggest moments.
Still, this is exactly the kind of three-way standoff Flushing Meadows loves to complicate. New York will have the final say, the way it always does, and the market will keep moving with every match, and so will this page.
