World No. 1 Jannik Sinner has officially pulled out of the upcoming U.S. Open due to a right knee injury.
The announcement removes last year’s runner-up from the men's singles draw and triggers immediate, dramatic line movement on prediction markets like Kalshi ahead of main-draw play starting Sunday, August 30.
Sinner Announces Withdrawal
Sinner, who reached the final in 2025 after falling to Carlos Alcaraz, confirmed his decision on social media following hit-outs in Monte Carlo to test his knee:
"Even though I have been working hard with my team and my medical staff, we have now had to make the difficult decision that I will not be able to compete at the US Open this year."
"We have been back on court in Monte Carlo over the last couple of days and have realised that I still need more time to recover from my right knee issue. I’m obviously very sad and disappointed, as New York has a special place in my heart. I was very much looking forward to coming back and playing in the electric atmosphere in front of the great fans there."
With Fan Week running from August 23 to August 29 and the 15-day main draw running through the Men's Singles Final on Sunday, September 13 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Sinner's absence reshapes the entire tournament landscape.
Kalshi Men's US Open New Favorites
The consensus shifted instantly on Kalshi following the news. With the tournament favorite out, capital flooded into alternative contenders, sparking sharp moves across the board:
- Carlos Alcaraz saw the steepest jump on Kalshi, escalating from ~14¢ up to ~40¢ (representing an implied probability of roughly 40% to lift the trophy), making him the clear frontrunner to reclaim the title.
- Alexander Zverev surged from 13¢ up to ~23¢, establishing him as the market’s consensus second option.
- Novak Djokovic, the veteran legend who has won the U.S. Open 4 times, saw his contract tick upward at a steadier pace, rising from 8¢ to 11¢.
- American Hopes (Ben Shelton & Taylor Fritz): Home-country contenders saw notable buy-in. Shelton gained 3 cents to hit 9¢, while Fritz picked up 1 cent to reach 8¢.
The sudden reshuffle has also driven secondary volume into dark-horse contracts for players like Daniil Medvedev and young sensation João Fonseca as traders re-evaluate paths to the championship match on September 13.
When Does the U.S. Open Start? Schedule & Key Dates
- Fan Week & Qualifying: Sunday, Aug. 23 – Saturday, Aug. 29
- Main Draw Round 1: Sunday, Aug. 30 – Tuesday, Sept. 1
- Men's Semifinals: Friday, Sept. 11 (3:00 PM & 7:00 PM ET)
- Men's Final: Sunday, Sept. 13 (2:00 PM ET)
