With Jannik Sinner out and Carlos Alcaraz just returning from injury, Novak Djokovic has another shot to capture his first Grand Slam title since the US Open in 2023.
To start his quest for major title No. 25, Djokovic will face off against Argentine Mariano Navone in the first round of the 2026 US Open (approx. 7 p.m. ET).
Find my US Open preview and Djokovic vs Navone predictions for Monday below.
Novak Djokovic vs Mariano Navone Player Prediction
- Djokovic vs Navone Pick: Novak Djokovic Game Spread -6.5 | Under 35.5
My Djokovic vs Navone best bets are on Djokovic covering the game spread and the match finishing under 35.5 games. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live ATP odds page.
Djokovic vs Navone Odds
| Novak Djokovic Odds | -640 |
| Mariano Navone Odds | +425 |
| Spread | Djokovic -6.5 (-140), Navone +6.5 (-105) |
| Over/Under | 35.5 (-115o / -130u) |
| Djokovic-Navone H2H | 0-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, Approx. 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Djokovic vs Navone Predictions, US Open Betting Analysis
By: Chris Gimino
Novak Djokovic hasn't exactly had a notable summer on the United States summer hard-court circuit. He played only one warm-up event (Cincinnati) and lost in his opening match in three sets to Thiago Agustin Tirante.
However, Djokovic has said that his body feels great, and playing in just one match since Wimbledon certainly will have the veteran fresh for New York.
But the limited court time could also have a negative impact, with Djokovic potentially needing time to adjust physically, especially against an opponent he has never faced before.
Well, my tennis model actually favors Djokovic coming out motivated and ready to go as he faces a massive opportunity with this draw.
My model has a 7.8% edge (A grade) on Djokovic covering the 6.5 game spread and a 7.1% edge (A grade) on the under, meaning this should be a quick match in favor of the veteran.
To better understand it, here's how my model comes to this conclusion:
For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).
Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.
Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.
From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.
And if you're looking for a deep dive on the stats surrounding how my model got to these two bets, here's the matchup chart for this Djokovic vs. Navone duel.
Ultimately, I expect Djokovic to cruise in this match to kick off the first Arthur Ashe night session at the 2026 US Open.
Pick: Novak Djokovic Game Spread -6.5 | Under 35.5
