The 146th US Open is in full swing. With over two weeks of incredible matchups ahead in New York, the tournament promises a thrilling finish at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Prediction markets are buzzing as they analyze the action, and on Polymarket, the “2026 Women’s US Open Winner” contract already features a clear favorite to take home the glory, though the field remains wide open with plenty of elite contenders capable of pulling off a major upset.
The Clear Frontrunner: Aryna Sabalenka
Trading consistently near the top of the board, Sabalenka commands the highest individual probability in the market. Her valuation is rooted in hard-court supremacy. With two US Open titles already under her belt and a game built around overwhelming baseline power and big-serving on fast surfaces, traders view her as the standard-bearer in Flushing Meadows.
But she isn’t the only name that commands respect and drives trading volume.
2026 Australian Open winner Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, and the newly crowned Cincinnati champion Coco Gauff will also be among the players to watch, while the Canadian Open winner Iga Swiatek and last year's runner-up Amanda Anisimova add further strength to the field.
Let’s analyze their cases and their potential market value.
The Chasing Pack: Gauff, Swiatek and Osaka
Right now, Coco Gauff is an excellent position whose Yes shares sell at an incredible discount. Until a few days ago, Gauff was holding down the third spot on the trading board, but market sentiment seems to have shifted in favor of the American star.
The 2023 US Open champion brings elite athleticism and high-leverage home crowd backing. Her price reflects strong structural support, though fluctuations often track the stability of her forehand and serve during warm-up tournaments.
Iga Swiatek is another compelling option for traders who choose to fade the heavy-favorite. Despite her historically dominant record on clay, traders routinely discount Swiatek slightly on faster North American hard courts. Still, as a former US Open champion with unmatched baseline consistency, she is always an elite contender.
Beyond the top tier sits a group of volatile, high-ceiling dark horses. Naomi Osaka remains a trader’s favorite due to her two New York titles and elite hard-court peak. Younger stars like French Open champion Mirra Andreeva and 2025 US Open runner-up Amanda Anisimova represent deep-value contracts for those who love underdog stories.
Rules and Dates
Fan Week and the qualifying rounds are nearly wrapped up. The first round kicks off on August 30, and that's when we'll start seeing major shifts in the market. Traders will be reacting in real-time to players' performances, so expect high volatility in mid-tier contracts. Some will gain serious value, while others will fade into irrelevance.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to No.
