Jessica Pegula vs Marketa Vondrousova Wimbledon Odds, Pick | Expert Preview

Jessica Pegula vs Marketa Vondrousova Wimbledon Odds, Pick | Expert Preview article feature image

Victoria Jones/Getty. Pictured: Marketa Vondrousova.

Pegula vs Vondrousova Odds

Pegula Odds-152
 Vondrousova Odds+126
Over/Under22.5 (-108 / -126)
Time | How to WatchTuesday, 8 a.m. ET | ESPN2
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch the Wimbledon, click here.

No. 4 seed Jessica Pegula rolled past Lesia Tsurenko in a 6-1, 6-3 victory at Wimbledon. The American has dropped just one set so far this tournament, flying into the quarterfinals.

But, how will Pegula fare against a dangerous baseline player in Marketa Vondrousova?

Read on for my preview below!

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Pegula Taking Advantage of Draw

Against Tsurenko, Pegula won 68% of her service points, getting broken just once. Pegula also won 54% of her return points, breaking serve on five occasions.

Tsurenko did seem out of gas after her 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(18) victory over Ana Bogdan. The Bogdan match lasted over 3.5 hours, and given how solid Pegula plays, this was a nightmare follow-up match.

Pegula has gotten very fortunate with her draw so far this tournament. She has yet to play a top-40 player, with those in Pegula's way lacking weapons.

She had played just one grass warmup event, making the quarterfinals of Eastbourne before falling 3-6, 3-6 to Coco Gauff. In that warmup event, Pegula lacked punch on her groundstrokes, and when she tried to ramp up the power, she often lost control of her shots.

But so far in London, Pegula has faced opponents who have allowed her to be completely in charge from the baseline, keeping the American in her comfort zone. It's no surprise, then, that all four players Pegula has faced at Wimbledon so far have a highercareerwinningpercentage on clay compared to grass.

And unlike Vondrousova (more on her to come), these players have not adapted their game to grass nearly as well and look much less comfortable than the Czech movement-wise.

But this isn't to say that Pegula isn't a dangerous player. She is the World No. 4 after all!

The American's serve can be underpowered, but she does often hit her spots. Pegula anticipates well, is a good mover and absorbs pace successfully. She has a high tennis IQ, can hit into small targets and is strong at the net.

Vondrousova Continues to Show Adaptability

Vondrousova showed impressive resolve in coming back from a set down to beat Marie Bouzkova 2-6, 6-4, 6-3. Vondrousova won 58% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. Vondrousova also won 44% of her return points, breaking five times.

After the first set, however, Vondrousova won 65% of her service points and was broken only once. She broke Bouzkova's serve four times after the first set.

Vondrousova has had to beat some top-tier grass opposition in London this year, including Veronika Kudermetova and Donna Vekic. The combined career record of Vondrousova's opponents ongrassatWimbledon so far is 90-64.

A former French Open finalist, Vondrousova is best known for her success in slower conditions. She was just 7-12 as a professional on grass coming into Wimbledon this season.

But given the quality of tennis she's produced this tournament and the level of opposition that she's beaten, it's clear that the Czech has clearly successfully adapted her game to the surface.

While Vondrousova's forehand backswing is a little elongated for grass, she's still been able to drag her opposition around the court with her heavy lefty forehand and she's maintained her rally tolerance on the surface. Vondrousova still absorbs pace well and counterpunches effectively.

She also has a lot of good variety. Vondrousova spreads the court well, incorporates cutting slices successfully and uses angles well. The Czech has a high tennis IQ, understands shot selection and doesn't get pushed too far behind the baseline.

Don't be fooled by Vondrousova's lack of grass results, she's dangerous on the surface.

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Pegula vs Vondrousova Pick

Pegula has skated by with an easy draw so far, but she's going to get a reality check in this match. Throughout this tournament, Vondrousova has been able to extend rallies and absorb her opponent's pace without getting pushed behind the baseline. Even on grass, she's looked comfortable in this role.

The American shouldn't be able to out-grind Vondrousova from the baseline and will likely be forced to play more aggressive tennis, lowering her margins to win points. Pegula has struggled when forced to do this against tougher opposition on grass in the past.

Vondrousova also has the variety to take Pegula out of her comfort zone. Unlike a player such as Tsurenko, who doesn't change the pace of play much, Vondrousova should keep the ball out of Pegula's strike zone. Her slices, angles and off-pace shots should keep the American off-balance.

Pick: Vondrousova ML (+126)

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