Miami Open Picks & Predictions | Best Bets For Tsitsipas vs Khachanov & More
Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Stefanos Tsitsipas.
After an eight-pack of matches each of the last two days from the men’s side at the Miami Open, we’ll see another eight matches on Tuesday. The players will battle for the right to move on in the second week of the event.
Let’s check out a pair of matches worth betting on for Tuesday’s action, including an intriguing clash between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov.
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Miami Open Picks & Predictions
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-140) vs Karen Khachanov (+110)
2:30 p.m. ET
In what is likely to be a very popular pick among tennis bettors on Tuesday, I’m all for a Stefanos Tsitsipas fade with Karen Khachanov.
It’s pretty clear with the Greek No. 1 as the slightest of favorites in this one that a shoulder injury is playing into the price point. The issue for me is that it isn’t being weighted quite heavily enough.
Tsitsipas has been a massive favorite against both Jordan Thompson on slow courts that the Australian doesn’t normally succeed on, and then against Cristian Garin – a clay courter who has found a few wins on hard and grass courts – but is far from the level of player that should trouble Tsitsipas. He lost the former and needed a close third set to win the latter.
Enter Khachanov, a much better quality of opponent, and a much more natural hard courter.
Given that Tsitsipas has looked completely out of sorts, he can not hit his backhand at anywhere near close to 100% and he told a member of the tennis media that he chose to play Indian Wells and Miami because of the consequences players can face should they opt not to play the mandatory Masters 1000 events, I can’t have him as a favorite against the Russian in this spot.
The fact that Khachanov was able to dispatch the up-and-coming Jiri Lehecka with relative ease in his third-round tilt is enough for me to back him.
Picks: Khachanov ML (+110 via Caesars)
Emil Ruusuvuori (-145) vs Botic van de Zandschulp (+125)
12:30 p.m. ET
Much like Tsitsipas in the previous match, I’m happy to fade another player that I would consider relatively lucky to be here.
Botic van de Zandschulp has emerged as a steady, well-rounded player the last few years, and he has been rewarded with a ranking that has blossomed into the top 35 in the world.
I’d say he’s rather lucky to be here, however, as he was the second-best player in his contest with Casper Ruud on Sunday night for almost the entirety of the match.
Heavily reliant on finding rhythm on his first serve and getting a decent number of unreturned serves, he lost the opener by a single break – though Ruud was dominant in the set, He won the second as Ruud got tight in the final game of the set and then was nearly a double break down in the third before once again taking advantage of an outlier service game to get back on serve.
The box score and the eye test both told the story.
As for Ruusuvuori, he’s taken well to Miami in the past. Whether when the courts were slow, or this year where they’ve been somewhat faster, he is content playing in the heat and humidity.
He noted how much he enjoys the south Florida climate tennis-wise in his post-match interview after defeating Taro Daniel.
His groundstrokes are big and his serve is potent, and the kind of mental game or tactical approach that had lacked in the past was clearly on display last round as well.
After the match he noted that the down-the-line shots were working so well for his Japanese opponent, and he was so tough to hit through from the baseline that he knew he had to come forward often.
He did just that, and Ruusuvuori won 15-of-17 points when he did. That kind of strategy was sorely lacking in the past.
Now, he’s got that working and the big groundstrokes that he’s always had. With his comfort in these conditions and the form edge he has to this point, I’m happy to back him here as a -145 to -150 favorite.
Pick: Ruusuvuori ML (-145 via FanDuel)
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