Monday Morning Tennis Betting Picks: 2 Plays in San Diego and Sofia

Monday Morning Tennis Betting Picks: 2 Plays in San Diego and Sofia article feature image
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Credit: Fabrice Coffrini, Getty. Marton Fucsovics hits a forehand at the Geneva Open.

Nearly every week on the ATP Tour brings new events, and the final week of September is no different this year.

A brand new tournament starts this week in San Diego at the Barnes Tennis Center and the Sofia Open in Bulgaria will be held again.

Here’s how I’m looking at Monday’s slate of matches.

Match times are subject to change.

Adrian Mannarino (-220) vs. Gianluca Mager (+165)

12:20 p.m. ET, Sofia Open

Neither of these players is completely comfortable on the surface they’ll face off on, with both players .500 or worse on outdoor and indoor hard courts throughout their careers. They’ve also never met prior to this first round matchup, so there are a lot of unknowns to consider.

Despite this, I think a key factor going into the battle is the lack of tennis that Adrian Mannarino has played. Since suffering a knee injury in his first round Wimbledon match against Roger Federer, the Frenchman has only played two matches, both at the US Open.

While Mannarino was able to maintain his intensity in extended matches, he still lacks any recent tennis on indoor hard courts, and he’s going to have to shake off rust as he gets going in Sofia.

Gianluca Mager enters Bulgaria without being in the best of form, but to his advantage he’s played two more matches on hard courts this summer and he has a match on an indoor hard court coming in Metz.

While he didn’t put forth his finest performance in that match against Nikoloz Basilashvili, a lot of that came down to serving. The Italian only made 54% of his first serves, though he won 76% of his points behind them. If he can raise that first serves made number to 60+, Mannarino will struggle to get into games on return.

I think you can count on that from Mager, and with so much uncertainty surrounding Mannarino’s game, getting him at this number is a good move.

Pick: Gianluca Mager +165 at DraftKings

Marton Fucsovics (-125) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (+100)

Match Delayed ’til Tuesday, San Diego Open

Unlike the prior matchup, Marton Fucsovics and Grigor Dimitrov have met twice. On both occasions, the Hungarian got the better of the Bulgarian. Both matches came in back-to-back weeks at the same venue, as the COVID-adjusted tennis calendar of 2020 had the “Cincinnati” Masters event being played in New York. Fucsovics won at that tournament before beating Dimitrov at the US Open.

It’s an interesting stylistic matchup that pits a more creative and flair-heavy player in Dimitrov against an incredibly consistent player in Fucsovics, though he certainly has his moments.

Two of the more casual yet brilliant shots of 2021 👏

Love your work, Marton Fucsovics! pic.twitter.com/ueC8eNv1VK

— ATP Tour (@atptour) September 21, 2021

Fucsovics struggled in his only match after the US Open, dropping two short sets against Lorenzo Sonego in Metz, he’s more suited to contend with a player like Dimitrov in outdoor conditions where wind and heat can play a role.

This has helped him in 2020, when he outlasted Dimitrov in both matches to advance. Each time Dimitrov looked spent physically (and mentally at the pseudo-Cincy tournament), struggling to match the intensity that Fucsovics can bring.

I foresee a similar outcome in this San Diego matchup, with Fucsovics getting by Dimitrov.

Pick: Marton Fucsovics -125 via PointsBet

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