Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Odds, Pick | Wimbledon Semifinal Preview

Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Odds, Pick | Wimbledon Semifinal Preview article feature image

Tim Clayton, Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner.

Djokovic vs Sinner Odds

Djokovic Odds-550
 Sinner Odds+400
Over/Under36.5 (-118 / -112)
Time | How to WatchFriday, 8:30 a.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch the Wimbledon, click here.

One year after their five-set quarterfinal matchup in London, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner go head-to-head one round later with a berth in the Wimbledon final on the line.

Djokovic is seeking his third Grand Slam title of the year, while Sinner is playing in his first major semifinal of his career.

Will Djokovic continue to prove he's a step above the rest of the tennis world, or will the 21-year-old Sinner prove the next generation is here?

Let's dive into my full preview and pick below.

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Djokovic Showing Slight Holes Despite High Level

Djokovic has been unbeatable this year in majors, but it's fair to say that in the last two matches he's shown slight cracks in his game.

Against Hubert Hurkacz, Djokovic was only able to convert one of eight break points and dropped the third set.

Then, against Andrey Rublev, Djokovic started slow, losing the first set 6-4 before recovering to win the match in four. From a betting perspective, Djokovic has covered in just two of his five matches.

Regardless, that's just cherry picking because Djokovic has dropped just two total sets in this event and is on course to win his eighth Wimbledon.

In particular, Djokovic's serve has been cooking. He's been broken just three times in this tournament and faced zero break points against both Jordan Thompson and Stan Wawrinka. He fought off seven of eight break points versus Rublev and won 89% of his first serve points against Hurkacz.

Is Sinner Ready to Maintain Form in Uncharted Waters?

There's a lot of talk about Carlos Alcaraz, but let's not forget about Sinner as one of the new representatives of tennis.

The Italian is 32-10 this year — with a finals appearance in Miami, two 1000-event semifinals and a title in Montpellier — and has broken through to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal.

While Sinner faces concerns with his occasional inconsistency and durability issues, he's one of the best ball-strikers in tennis.

And when his serve is cooking, Sinner is extremely tough to beat.

In this event, Sinner hasn't dealt with a difficult path to the semifinals, defeating just one player who is ranked higher than 80th in the world (Quentin Halys).

That's not to discount his play, but this will be a significant step up for the 21-year-old who has yet to face this semifinal pressure.

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Djokovic vs Sinner Pick

As I mentioned in the intro, Djokovic and Sinner faced off in the 2022 Wimbledon quarterfinals. Sinner flashed signs of greatness and proved he can compete with the best in tennis, but Djokovic ultimately came back to win in five sets.

Only three men have pushed Novak Djokovic to a fifth set during the Serbian's 33-match Wimbledon win streak: Rafael Nadal in the 2018 semi-finals, Roger Federer in the epic 2019 final and… Jannik Sinner in last year's quarters.

Even though Sinner injured his ankle in the fourth set and was moving gingerly in the decider, he wasn't particularly close to finishing off Djokovic.

And I think that stat above is actually good news for us and spells a "revenge" angle for Djokovic.

The veteran hasn't lost a match on Centre Court in 10 years and has been serving lights out throughout this event. Even though Sinner is much more experienced than he was a year ago, the same can be said about Djokovic's familiarity with Sinner's game.

I have concerns about Sinner's serve and his lack of experience in this spot. And if his ball-striking is off just a little bit, it could spell trouble.

I'm a huge fan of the Italian's, but the margin for error against Djokovic is just so low. Expect this to go under the total.

Pick: Under 36.5 games (-112)

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