Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz Odds, Pick, Predictions | US Open Expert Preview

Djokovic vs Fritz Odds

The first men's quarterfinal of the US Open will take place in the afternoon inside Arthur Ashe Stadium between World No. 2 Novak Djokovic and top-ranked American Taylor Fritz.

The two have a long history on the ATP Tour with Djokovic dominating their prior proceedings.

Will anything change on Tuesday, or will the 23-time Grand Slam champion easily stroll to yet another US Open semifinal?

Let's break it all down in our Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz pick and prediction.

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Djokovic Getting Comfortable With Some Help

Outside of his five-set thriller against Laslo Djere in the third round, the World No. 2 has had a rather tidy four matches here at the US Open. He's now won nine straight matches dating back to his loss to Carlos Alcaraz in this year's Wimbledon final, dropping just three sets along the way, and he stands at 42-5 on the season.

Djokovic has looked the part of a tournament favorite here, showcasing his legendary returning ability against some giant servers. While Djere was able to bother Djokovic with his serve in the third round through two sets, I'd chalk that up to the history the two have together on tour and off the court as fellow countrymen.

Other than those two sets, though, Djokovic has really only played three competitive sets of tennis. Some of that is due to his elite level, but he's had a very easy draw to this point. It may work in his favor, keeping him fresh, or it may work against him.

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Fritz Cruising Through Draw

The American is the only player remaining in the men's draw who has yet to drop a set. While many have scoffed at his draw — seeing him come through Steve Johnson, Juan Pablo Varillas, Jakub Menšík and Dominic Stricker — it's important to recognize that the American has played at a high level in each of his matches.

Even his fourth-round encounter with Stricker was impressive; the young Swiss lefty has a ton of talent and didn't look very tired despite coming through back-to-back five-set wins after playing qualifying the week before. Stricker served well and hit his forehand with ferocity, but Fritz hung in rallies and really did a lot of damage with his two-handed backhand.

Fritz enters this encounter with a splendid 34-8 record on hard courts this year, winning two titles here in the States, and aside from his loss to Djokovic in Cincinnati he hasn't dropped a set since he lost to Alex de Minaur in Toronto.

Djokovic vs Fritz Pick

The head-to-head here is rather damning. Fritz has lost all seven matches he's played against Djokovic, including a recent meeting in Cincinnati which went rather quickly, ending 6-0, 6-4.

There are two things that may make this match a little different. The first is the fact that this will be the best of five sets. The only time these two met at a Slam – at the 2021 Australian Open – Fritz played two very competitive sets before taking the third, which saw Djokovic suffer an abdominal injury.

The other one is the conditions. This match will be played in a good deal of humidity on a what's forecasted to be a 93-degree day in New York. We've seen humidity make it very difficult to generate pace with heavy tennis balls here at the US Open, and the Djokovic forehand hasn't done as much damage here as it did in Cincinanti, which features some of the fastest hard courts around.

So, while it might seem like that match is an indicator of how this one will go, I think it'll be a much more physical battle. That should really help Fritz here, since he can generate pace and end points with his incredible power. Djokovic has made a living off of absorbing pace and playing defense, and it'll be much harder to do that in these extreme conditions.

I think in front of a home crowd, with the added variance of a best-of-five match, Fritz will take a set off of Djokovic.

Pick: Fritz +2.5 sets (-140)