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Roland Garros Round 1 Odds & Best Bet: Back Bouzkova to Handle Davis in Paris (May 22)

Roland Garros Round 1 Odds & Best Bet: Back Bouzkova to Handle Davis in Paris (May 22) article feature image
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Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Marie Bouzkova reacts to a point at the Mutua Madrid Open.

  • Marie Bouzkova is favored to get off to a good start to her French Open campaign.
  • David Gertler believes the price is justified, and it may still leave the door open to back Bouzkova in a certain way.
  • See how he's betting her round one match with Lauren Davis.

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Marie Bouzkova vs. Lauren Davis Odds

Bouzkova Odds -250
Davis Odds +202
Over/Under 21.5
Time 12 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

Editor’s Note: This match was cancelled after Lauren Davis withdrew from the tournament.

Marie Bouzkova hasn’t played since Madrid, but she made her mark in that tournament.

Bouzkova qualified and made the round of 16, falling in a tight three-setter to Ekaterina Alexandrova, 7-6(4), 0-6, 5-7.

She returned very well in the Spanish capital. Despite the altitude, Alexandrova was the only opponent (including qualifying) to win 60% or more of her service points against Bouzkova.

In total, Bouzkova won 96-of-175 (55%) second-serve return points on the week, doing a great job of not letting opponents off the hook on their second delivery.

Overall, Bouzkova went 4-2 on the clay-court season. While she is at her best on hard courts, Bouzkova still does hold a 56% winning percentage in professional matches on clay and she understands how to move on the surface.

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The Czech is one of the best movers on the WTA Tour. Combine that with how she gets consistent depth from both wings and it makes Bouzkova hard to break down.

Bouzkova is a bit weaker at creating pace and being the aggressor in rallies, however.

Lauren Davis seemed to regain some of her footing on clay in Rome. Davis qualified and defeated Jelena Ostapenko in the first round, but fell in straight sets to Elena Rybakina in her next match.

Rome was the first real sign of life for Davis throughout this clay-court season.

Coming into the tournament, she had lost three matches in a row and she’s just 4-4 on clay on the season. Davis was great attacking second serves, as she won over 50% of her second-serve return points in every match in Rome.

Despite this, Davis has struggled with that department on her own end, winning over 50% of her own second-serve points just twice throughout the clay season.

Neither of those two opponents, Mariam Bolkvadze nor Stefania Rubini, are inside the top 150 of the world.

That’s the thing about Davis’ clay results this season. She beat Bolkvadze in Charleston, who is 0-7 on clay this season.

Her other three wins in Rome came against Rubini, who is currently world number 402, Elena Gabriela Ruse via retirement, and an erratic Ostapenko.

Davis’ best career surface is clay, with a 60% winning percentage, and when she is playing well, Davis is a tough player to beat.

The American moves well and despite only being five foot, two inches, she gets great pop on her groundstrokes when firing.

If Davis is playing well, she’s a clean ball striker that can control the baseline.

Betting Value

While Bouzkova isn’t at her best on clay, she is still very competent on the surface and she’ll force Davis to go bigger and bigger from the ground to hit through her.

Davis has been out of form, and her Rome results are not as impressive as they appear on the surface. She also tends to lose control of her groundstrokes when her opponent forces her to consistently hit extra shots.

We saw Davis implode in this type of situation when she played Madison Brengle in Saint Mel. Brengle won 7-5, 6-1, holding Davis to under 50% of her first serves won and under 35% of her second serves won.

Davis overhit from the baseline, with the court shrinking due to Brengle’s defensive skills. Bouzkova has greater offensive capabilities than Brengle and will be able to take advantage of this facet.

Look for Bouzkova to be too solid for Davis, allowing her to win in straights.

Pick: Bouzkova to Win 2-0 (+102)

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