Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jordan Thompson Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (June 30)

Tsitsipas vs. Thompson Odds

For the first time in his career, Stefanos Tsitsipas has found sustained success on the grass courts.

Coming off a title on the island of Mallorca, Tsitsipas carried that momentum to London, picking up his first main draw win at The Championships for the first time since 2018.

With a much tougher grass-court opponent coming up in the second round, can he keep the win streak going? Let's break it down.

Tsitsipas Gutting Out Wins

Now on the first five-match grass win streak of his career, Tsitsipas has been proving his detractors wrong for the last week and a half.

The caveat to that, of course, is that while winning, you could make the case he's still slightly overvalued in the markets.

As a favorite on the grass season, he's just 3-5 against the spread and is still playing matches closer than many would expect – including his first-round match with Alexander Ritschard.

Tsitsipas' backhand wing still needs work on both his return of serve, as well as from the baseline.

While much better than previous seasons (the slice is becoming less attackable, which is key for players with one-handed backhands), it's still a groundstroke savvy players can attack.

His neutral-rally backhands are still a little too spin-heavy as well, and it has yet to become a real threat in an attacking capacity.

With Thompson adept at playing on grass courts and in good form, this could be another stern test for the Greek as he continues to improve on the surface.

Thompson Comfortable During Grass Swing

As for the Aussie, he has all the tools to problem Tsitsipas in. I'm not going to make the case he should be the favorite in this match, but he can certainly keep things close if he's on his game.

Thompson's form entering The Championships has been strong – even if most of the wins were amassed at Challenger level – beating some strong servers and flatter hitters with games suited for the slicker courts.

A loss to Dan Evans on grass is nothing to be overly concerned with. The same goes for a loss to Nuno Borges off back-to-back long weeks (10 matches in 12 days).

His first-round tilt with Roberto Carballes Baena went as expected, as he dispatched the Spaniard rather easily.

Finally, he matches up well and is comfortable on grass courts. He likes the lower bounce and hits flat himself – which should frustrate Tsitsipas.

We can also see a statistical jump from the 28-year-old when he gets onto the lawns this time of year. Compared to hard courts, his ace rate jumps by 1.5%, his first serve points won is raised by over 5%, second serve points won by nearly 8% and his service hold rate by about 7% (all 2022 figures).

While some of that can be attributed to playing Challenger matches on grass, there's also a clear preference for the quicker, lower-bouncing courts for Thompson.

Betting Value

Though Tsitsipas' name, overall pedigree and recent form leading in mean he's a deserved favorite, Thompson has the right game to frustrate and push him.

With his serve and baseline game playing up on the quicker surface and Tsitsipas dragged into longer matches than expected more often than not, I'm going to look to back Thompson to keep things close in a few capacities.

Picks: Thompson +2.5 sets (-120 via DraftKings) | Over 36.5 Games (-105 via DraftKings)

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