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Tennis Odds & Predictions: Musetti Will Play Korda Close in ATP Metz (September 21)

Tennis Odds & Predictions: Musetti Will Play Korda Close in ATP Metz (September 21) article feature image
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Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Lorenzo Musetti.

ATP Metz rolls on and there are more fascinating matchups on Wednesday’s order of play.

Two of those matches present value in tennis odds that we can exploit!

Read below for my analysis and predictions.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.

Alexander Bublik (-700) vs. Evan Furness (+470)

8 a.m. ET

Alexander Bublik lost to Botic Van De Zandschulp and Taylor Fritz, before most recently beating Cameron Norrie on the indoor hard courts of Glasgow during Davis Cup play last week.

In all three matches, Bublik had a positive winner/unforced errors ratio and won at least two-thirds of his first serves.

Bublik has gone 199-129 on hard courts in his career. However, he is just 13-11 on hard this season and 24-22 overall in 2022. Bublik has a big serve, an aggressive mindset on court and excellent variety. However, he often loses focus and trades off between spectacular shot-making and terrible unforced errors.

Evan Furness qualified for the main draw with quality tennis. In his most recent victory over the big-serving Quentin Halys, Furness held Halys to just 33% of his second serves won. If we include Furness’ opening qualifying win over Geoffrey Blancaneaux, the Frenchman has won over 75% of his first serves, over 60% of his second serves and gone unbroken during qualifying.

Although playing lower-level competition than Bublik has, Furness is 145-89 on hard courts as a professional and 19-13 on the year. Furness is known for his foot speed and consistency, but he’s getting excellent depth this week and has been on-fire during his service games.

This matchup will be much closer than it is projected to be on paper. Furness is used to the Metz conditions from playing in qualifying and the slower conditions greatly favor the Frenchman.

Furness is very consistent from the baseline and gets a lot of balls back into play, which will help him blunt Bublik’s power on both the his serve and his groundstrokes. The court speed in Metz will exacerbate this issue for Bublik, which could lead the Kazakh to mentally check out of the match at times.

Pick: Furness +4.5 Games (-114 via FanDuel)

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Sebastian Korda (-240) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+190)

2 p.m. ET

Sebastian Korda defeated Hugo Gaston 6-3, 7-6(2) in the first round. Korda won 69% of his service points and was only broken once, saving two set points on his serve in the second set.

Korda is now 15-9 on hard courts for the season and 85-62 in his career. The American has a big, well-placed first serve and can overpower his opposition from the ground. Korda’s groundstrokes also cut through the court. However, he sometimes loses his consistency and he’s not the most nimble on court.

Lorenzo Musetti played one Davis Cup match last week, beating Borna Gojo 6-4, 6-2 on the indoor hard courts of Emilia Romagna. Musetti won 78% of his service points and didn’t face a break point. On return, Musetti held the big-serving Gojo to 63% of his first serves won and 48% of his second serves won.

Musetti is 11-11 on hard courts in 2022 and 44-42 in his career, although he’s looked better on the surface recently, winning three of his last four hard-court matches. He hits heavy groundstrokes and can attack openings.

The Italian manipulates the ball around the court well and has excellent variety, befuddling opponents his cutting backhand slice and perfect drop shots.

In the second set yesterday, Gaston made Korda uncomfortable with his variety, keeping the ball out of Korda’s strike zone and forcing the American to hit many extra shots. Musetti will also make Korda uncomfortable, while also possessing power that the Frenchman doesn’t have to put Korda on the defensive more often.

The Italian will drag Korda around the court with his variety, opening up court space for him to hit winners into. Korda won’t be able to consistently hit clean groundstrokes due to the variety Musetti will throw at him.

Pick: Musetti +3.5 Games (-118 via FanDuel)

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