Thursday Wimbledon Odds, Predictions, Picks: Bogdan Will Blunt Kvitova’s Power (June 30)
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Petra Kvitova.
The second round of Wimbledon marches on with spectacular tennis in London.
I’ve found two matches on Thursday’s order of play where value has presented itself.
Read on for my Wimbledon best bets and previews.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Petra Kvitova (-450) vs. Ana Bogdan (+310)
6 a.m. ET
Petra Kvitova survived a scare in the first round, defeating Jasmine Paolini 2-6, 6-4, 6-2. Kvitova won 67% of her first-serve points and saved 9-of-12 break points.
However, Kvitova hit 10 double faults and 18 winners compared to 37 errors. The Czech was lucky she was playing a weaker grass-courter in Paolini.
With that said, Kvitova is on a six-match winning streak on grass and is 65-21 as a professional on the surface. Kvitova’s huge lefty serve and aggressive baseline game helped her win two Wimbledon singles titles.
Despite winning Eastbourne last week, however, Kvitova has struggled with consistency this season and is often erratic from the baseline.
Ana Bogdan dominated an inconsistent Dayana Yastremska in a 6-2, 6-2 victory to advance to the second round. Bogdan won 84% of her service points and didn’t face a break point. On return, she won 51% of her return points and broke serve four times.
Bogdan is now 3-1 for the season on grass and has a 12-11 career-record on the surface.
While the Romanian doesn’t have overwhelming power, she moves well and defends effectively, even on the faster grass. As she showcased against Yastremska, Bogdan is great about absorbing pace and not getting pushed behind the baseline.
Kvitova has the grass pedigree and recent success on the surface, but she hasn’t been able to maintain a long-term high level of play all season and she played mediocre tennis in the first round. If Kvitova continues to be erratic, this plays right into the steady Romanian’s hands.
Bogdan’s ability to absorb power and not get pushed is also important against a player like Kvitova. The Czech won’t be able to dominate from the baseline and will be forced to play longer rallies from less dominating positions than she would like to. This will cause Kvitova to start pressing.
Pick: Bogdan +4.5 games (+100 via BetMGM)
Barbora Krejcikova (-200) vs. Viktorija Golubic (+155)
8 a.m. ET
Barbora Krejcikova won her first match since Doha in the first round, beating Maryna Zanevska 7-6(4), 6-3. Krejcikova won 78% of her first serves and was only broken twice, but only won 42% of her second-serve points.
With that said, Krejcikova won 45% of her return points and tried to be aggressive on return.
As a professional, in singles Krejcikova is just 5-6 on grass and 1-1 this season. However, she did win the 2018 Wimbledon doubles title, and with her incredible net skills, she has potential on grass in singles.
Krejcikova – when playing well, – showcases controlled aggression and a high-level understanding of point construction. However, she will need to improve on her first-round performance, hitting just 12 winners compared to 25 unforced errors.
Viktorija Golubic comfortably beat Andrea Petkovic in straight sets to kick off her Wimbledon campaign. Golubic won 68% of her first serves, saving five of the six break points she faced. On return, Golubic won 63% of her second-serve return points and broke serve four times.
Golubic, a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon last season, is 29-23 in her career on grass (4-3 this season). The Swiss is solid from the baseline and has a knifing backhand slice that stays low and that she manipulates around the court well.
In addition, Golubic has great touch and can play with controlled aggression when she gets the opportunity to do so.
Krejcikova has played fewer matches on grass both this season and during her career compared to Golubic. In addition, the Czech has played just three matches total since February. It’s hard to trust Krejcikova given her lack of match play, especially given her mediocre performance in the first round.
She was unsteady from the baseline against Zanevska and Golubic will keep the ball out of her strike zone with her backhand slice, leading to more unforced errors. Golubic will also target Krejcikova’s second serve, as the Czech has not won more than 50% of her second-serve points in any of her three matches since Doha.
Pick: Golubic +3.5 games (-115 via BetMGM)
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