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Thursday Wimbledon Odds, Previews, Picks: 2 Underdogs With Value (June 30)

Thursday Wimbledon Odds, Previews, Picks: 2 Underdogs With Value (June 30) article feature image
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Shaun Botterill/Getty. Pictured: Alex Molcan.

Continuing the theme for the second round featuring some of the lesser known men in the Wimbledon singles draw, we’re going to take a look at matches featuring Crisitian Garin, Hugo Grenier, Marcos Giron and Alex Molcan.

Let’s see if we can find some poor pricing with players that may have an edge on the surface, despite not being the flashiest names out there.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Cristian Garin (-265) vs. Hugo Grenier (+210)

8:45 a.m. ET

The match between Garin and Grenier entices me primarily because there’s a clear gulf here in terms of career pedigree and overall ranking. For my money, that’s distorting the market here and providing some value on the underdog and over.

It is Grenier’s first professional season playing grass tennis, but he’s had decent success, and stylistically it makes sense.

The tall Frenchman has a potent first serve, hits from the baseline with very little net clearance and has a pretty flat ball that stays nice and low. He can also grind in prolonged rallies and possesses decent rally tolerance.

His lone losses this season on grass have come to the explosive Jiri Vesely and equally-powerful Jack Sock.

Garin is no quick-court player and this season he has been handled with ease by Alex de Minaur and Seabastian Korda. Last season he managed the second week at the All England Club, but his path to the fourth round was a trio of players unsuited to grass courts.

In terms of the matchup here, Grenier keeping that ball low should frustrate Garin – who doesn’t have the requisite power to hit through Grenier even if he had the ball at a more optimal height to strike.

Grenier can also find free points on serve fairly easily to keep things close. I’m going to look at this one to be extended more than the market anticipates, and I also believe Grenier has a better shot at pulling the upset than the +205 number implies.

Pick:  Over 37.5 Games (-110 via DraftKings) | Grenier ML (+210 via FanDuel)

Marcos Giron (-180) vs. Alex Molcan (+140)

6 a.m. ET

Giron and Molcan feature in another match whee the underdog is intriguing.

Despite being known for his play on clay as he ascended the rankings and made his way through the Challenger Tour before becoming a relative regular on the ATP World Tour in 2022, Molcan has added some aggression to his incredibly consistent lefty game from the baseline.

I’m much more comfortable backing him now on quicker courts, especially in a matchup against someone like Giron.

While the American also prefers quicker courts (his less powerful game plays up and becomes a tad more difficult to play against), the rally tolerance, athleticism and consistency of Molcan are going to make it tough to find winners.

Molcan’s grass season hasn’t necessarily stood out, but two relatively close losses to Tallon Griekspoor aren’t terrible considering the big game of the Dutchman. His wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Pedro Martinez weren’t overly impressive, but they show he can win on the slicker surface.

With Molcan’s inside-out forehand being the biggest weapon on the court, his ability to place his lefty serves very well, and a return game that can pressure much bigger servers than Giron, I’m going to side with the dog in this one.

Pick: Molcan ML (+140 via BetMGM)

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