Tommy Paul vs. Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Prediction (June 29)

Paul vs. Mannarino Odds

Tommy Paul has been one of the surprises of grass season, going 5-3 with a convincing first-round win over Fernando Verdasco here at the All England Club.

His next match promises to be a much tougher one against a grass master in Adrian Mannarino. Should he really be the favorite here?

Let's examine.

Paul Grinding Out Grass Season

Paul has never been much of a grass guy. In fact, this is his first-ever appearance in the main draw at Wimbledon despite his standing as a top-100 player over the last few seasons.

The American was just 6-4 on grass in 2019 with a collection of wins in Challenger tournaments and in qualifying. That means this season was the first time he'd ever won on the surface.

He's taken out some pretty good competitors like Denis Shapovalov, Francisco Cerundolo and Jannik Sinner in some Wimbledon tune-ups before taking his opening match here at the All England Club.

The American prefers to play on clay and slow hard courts with his big topspin forehand, but his flat backhand can be a pretty effective shot on these courts.

Regardless of how he plays, he's winning, and that should count for something. Paul has had a tough season with a 21-16 record, and grass is the surface where he's had the most success.

Mannarino A Beneficiary Of Conditions

Say what you want about Adrian Mannarino, but he's always found a way to win on his favorite surfaces. The Frenchman has never been much of a clay-courter, and has had his struggles on hardcourts — especially in the last three seasons.

With that, he's still put up a winning record on his beloved indoor hardcourts and on grass in the last three years.

That's because his style of play, which is highly unorthodox, involves slow, flat groundstrokes with his super low string tension. This is incredibly effective on fast surfaces, because Mannarino can use the pace of the ball coming at him to his advantage.

As a result, we've seen Mannarino produced some special runs at Wimbledon. He's gone to the fourth round three times in his career, and he was on track to beat Roger Federer last year before suffering an unfortunate injury and retiring from the match before the fifth set.

He had to dig deep to take out Max Purcell in a first-round epic, but that's hardly an easy opponent for Mannarino.

Betting Value

Paul's counter-punching style isn't exactly the best matchup for Mannarino, but I'm willing to bite on the Frenchman with an ounce of skepticism towards Paul.

The American's wins on grass haven't exactly come in dominant fashion, and he's played passively in all of his matches. Mannarino does like to use what the opponent throws at him, but he's a master on this surface and will be able to move Paul around to his liking.

Mannarino is 81-53 on grass and just gave Daniil Medvedev an excellent fight in Hertogenbosch two weeks ago after reaching the semifinal. He shouldn't be disrespected like this.

Pick:  Mannarino +130