Tuesday US Open Betting Analysis: Picks For Noskova vs Brengle, Lys vs Montgomery
Aaron Doster/Getty. Pictured: Linda Noskova.
Day 2 is upon us from Flushing Meadows.
Another action-packed day at the US Open will see a flurry of matches play out across the grounds. Here's two that I like from a betting point of view from the women's singles draw in Noskova vs Brengle and Lys vs Montgomery.
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Tuesday US Open Betting Analysis
Linda Noskova (-263) vs Madison Brengle (+210)
11 a.m. ET
Standout hard-court prospect from the Czech Republic, Linda Noskova, gets her campaign underway at the 2023 edition of the US Open on Tuesday. She opens play on Court 12 against American Madison Brengle and should have the perfect opportunity to find some rhythm in the conditions from New York City.
Brengle can pose problems for many players – particularly those that are erratic from the baseline – with her incredibly consistent style and dogged defenses on court. If you are underpowered, the 33-year-old can be an absolute nightmare to be drawn against.
Fortunately for Noskova, she is not that player.
The teenager has a superb backhand, a decent serve and the ability to hit through the forehand side as well.
Her hard-court form this season is nothing to be scoffed at either. She reached the final of the first Adelaide tournament this year as a qualifier, beating Anastasia Potapova, Daria Kasatkina, Ons Jabeur and Victoria Azarenka. She only managed to reach the third round in Indian Wells and the second round in Miami, though it's hard to fault her, as the players that beat her were Coco Gauff and Petra Kvitova.
Fast forward to this summer and she has a quarterfinal in Warsaw (again, only losing to Iga Swiatek) and a run to the final in Prague on home soil.
I'm big on Noskova against someone with few weapons and who is too reliant on her opponent's mistakes. If you can snag an even -4, I prefer this bet there.
Pick: Noskova -3.5 games (-130 via DraftKings)
Eva Lys (-175) vs Robin Montgomery (+142)
4:30 p.m. ET
In the second match of the day, I want to look at an underdog that has seen her price continue to drift and become cheaper and cheaper to back. It's one American tennis fans should be able to get behind as well.
One of the best young prospects in American women's tennis in Robin Montgomery will look to upset Eva Lys, who came through the qualifying draw in absolutely dominant fashion. That has led to the markets backing her and betting her out to -180 from an opening price in the -160 range.
I am a fan of the German's game, but to be betting her into the region of being a dominant favorite is too much for me for a few reasons.
The first is Montgomery's talent. While Lys has a very strong baseline game, I'm also a fan of the southpaw from the baseline and I don't think she'll have too much trouble dictating behind her serve and dealing with Lys' ability to pull the ball around the court.
The other red flag is Lys' serve. It has to be one of the weaker serves among those inside the world's top-150.
Not only is the second serve desperately in need of a way to be protected thanks to its lack of pace, but the first serve isn't the most potent delivery either.
A relatively unknown McCartney Kessler and a terribly out of form Nuria Parrizas Diaz couldn't take advantage in qualifiers, but Montgomery is a young gun on the ascent with the ability to punish weak serves.
I'm happy to buy in on Montgomery with the market giving her below a 40% chance to come away victorious.
Pick: Montgomery ML (+142 via PointsBet)
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