Wednesday US Open Betting Analysis: Kvitova vs Wozniacki, Davis vs Juvan
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Petra Kvitova.
We're onto the second round of play at the US Open, and while the matches won't be coming quite as fast and furious and they have over the course of the last few days, there is still a plethora of action to dig your teeth into from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Let's take a look at a pair of matches from the women's second round action that tickle the fancy from the betting perspective.
Here is my Wednesday US Open betting analysis, featuring a blockbuster match between Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki.
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Wednesday US Open Betting Analysis
Petra Kvitova (-230) vs Caroline Wozniacki (+175)
8:15 p.m. ET
As much as it was nice to see Wozniacki make her return to New York, where she's made deep runs in the past and where her husband (former NBA player David Lee) played basketball professionally, I fear her stay won't be all that long in the Big Apple.
The 33-year-old has picked up a pair of wins since coming back to professional tennis, but there are a few similarities in the players she beat that have me concerned that they aren't the best indicator of her level.
For starters, neither Kimberly Birrell nor Tatiana Prozorova is exactly a really strong player. The other similarity? Neither can generate the type of power to hit through what I'm sure they considered frustratingly strong defensive play.
Not only does Kvitova possess the power to hit through Wozniacki, but she also has the pedigree and quality to put away the still-returning and rusty Dane.
In fact, against the only two players she's come up against that have had semi-decent years, she has yet to win a set. Some may point to the pushback against Marketa Vondrousova in Montreal, but that was far more up to a clear lapse in focus from the Wimbledon champion than any kind of spectacular play from Wozniacki.
The other reason I like the Czech to win by margin here is the discrepancy in the service games. Only one player is likely to find holds of serve relatively consistently. It isn't Wozniacki.
Pick: Kvitova -3.5 games (-110 via Caesars)
Lauren Davis (-135) vs Kaja Juvan (+110)
11 a.m. ET
I've been waiting for Kaja Juvan to burst onto the scene for quite some time now. The surface versatility is there, the ability to play well from both wings is there but the serve lets her down far too often and she goes through spells of hitting down on the ball from the forehand side, which leads to far too many unforced errors.
Her record this summer boasts of a string of rather unimpressive wins and some poor losses (whether against a hard courter on clay courts who was in the draw as a lucky loser, or because of the margin she was defeated by).
Even her qualifying campaign was thoroughly unconvincing, as the Slovenian struggled to close out Haruka Kaji – a lesser known ITF player – from a set and break up, as well as Himeno Sakatsume – another ITF player, though she is a tad more talented than Kaji.
Credit where it's due for beating Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the first round, but she's tasked with another WTA Tour regular in Davis and I haven't seen anything that suggests she's ready for a run of form against legitimate tour-level competition.
Davis plays a flat style, is not afraid to attack weak second serves (one of Juvan's major vulnerabilities) and is at home on hard courts.
The only reason this line should be near the -160 mark is because of lingering question marks around her physicality. The way she dispatched Danka Kovinic in the opening round, however, alleviated some of those concerns and I think that this moneyline should be even shorter. Give me the American with the crowd at her back to win this far more often than the 58% of the time.
Pick: Davis ML (-135 via PointsBet)