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Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Analysis: Target Particular Set Total on Wednesday (June 29)

Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Analysis: Target Particular Set Total on Wednesday (June 29) article feature image
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Picture alliance/Getty. Pictured: Oscar Otte.

With a combination of first-round upsets and COVID news, it was an eventful few days at The Championships.

Names like Matteo Berrettini and Marin Cilic are out due to COVID, while Felix Auger-Aliassime and Hubert Hurkacz were sent packing.

Let’s take a look at a pair of matches that feature some of the lesser known names on the ATP Tour as they get set to open the second round.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Ryan Peniston (-145) vs. Steve Johnson (+115)

6 a.m. ET

The first match pits wild card Ryan Peniston against veteran Steve Johnson, with each on different career paths, as well as coming through in very different fashion from their first-round matches.

Johnson was the beneficiary of an unfortunate injury to Grigor Dimitrov, who looked strong taking the first set, before stumbling through the second set and ultimately retiring.

Peniston made quick work of Henri Laaksonen to punch his ticket to the next round, building on what’s been a rather impressive grass-court season. The 26-year-old now has nine wins on the slick surface, with most coming against ATP Tour-level talent.

With Johnson having a lackluster grass season to this point and potentially past his prime, the form edge here goes to Peniston.

Matchup-wise, the Brit also has the style to give Johnson fits. With the American’s strengths being his first serve, forehand and slice backhand, Peniston fits the bill.

An athletic southpaw that can return the serve and prolong rallies, while having no trouble getting to the low-bouncing slices and spinning them back crosscourt to the Johnson backhand wing is not ideal.

On serve, Peniston will be able to target that backhand wing as much as he wants, allowing him to dictate and build points against an opponent who simply cannot attack from that wing and rarely, if ever, hits a non-slice backhand.

With similar hold plus break percentages on the surface this year, Peniston possessing the much better return game and tougher strength of schedule over the past several weeks and the career trajectories going in opposing ways, I’m fine siding with Peniston at just -145.

Pick:  Peniston ML (-145 via DraftKings)

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Oscar Otte (-500) vs. Christian Harrison (+333)

7:15 a.m. ET

In another match between two guys that may not be familiar to many people watching Wednesday’s second-round action, the big-serving Oscar Otte takes on Christian Harrison.

With the books having this match as such a lopsided affair, the derivative markets that generally correlate to the moneyline pricing have some intriguing options to look at.

For starters, both these men have strong serve and forehand combos. While Otte’s serve is elite on the grass, Harrison’s is still strong – especially against a rather poor returner in Otte.

The German may have cruised through his first round match against Peter Gojowczyk, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in that, considering his compatriot had won three professional matches since late February – all in qualifying draws.

Outside of that match, Otte has managed to break under 10% of the time this grass season and has played many tight sets and matches.

With Harrison having played a decently long straight-sets match against Jay Clarke over two days in the opening round and not being all that familiar with best-of-five matches, I prefer the first set over to the full match total in this spot.

BetMGM is hanging a +190 for the set to end either 7-5 or 7-6, so we’re also getting a cheap price on that market.

Pick: 1st set Over 10.5 Games (+190 via BetMGM)

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