Wimbledon Odds, Analysis, Picks: Previews For The Opening Day of Action
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Tereza Martincova.
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It's a quick turnaround from the French Open to The Championships from the All England Club on the grass. It feels like the dust just settled at Roland Garros and we're already onto the third major of the season at Wimbledon.
With 128 matches between the two singles draws to choose from, there's not shortage of value to be had in the coming days.
Let's delve into a pair of matches from the first day of action in the women's draw.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Odds & Picks
Tereza Martincova (-280) vs Nadia Podoroska (+210)
6:00 a.m. ET
Fading Nadia Podoroska on quicker courts is something I'm rather fond of. The fact that this spread is only four games simply isn't right. Not only is the Argentine rather poor on grass and lower-bouncing surfaces, but Tereza Martincova is the exact opposite – doing almost all her damage on quicker courts.
Though she has a powerful forehand, Podoroska does need the time slower courts provide to ensure she can actually hit it without committing too many errors. That's not exactly ideal on grass courts, where the ball skids through and gets on players much quicker.
Martincova hits a flat ball and doing so with sneaky pace should also complicate things for the Rosario native. The other matchup edge I like for the Czech here is that her best shot happens to be that forehand. That happens to go into to Podoroska's backhand wing when hit inside-out, a favorable attacking point for her.
In terms of prior success and current form, there isn't much of either for Podoroska. While she did beat Rebeka Masarova a few weeks ago, she did so from a set down in a match where the Spaniard looked real tight in the final two sets and hit everything centrally, right to Podoroska. Other than that, there's almost nothing to speak of in terms of grass-court success.
Martincova has wins against Dayana Yastremska and her power, as well as Magdalena Frech, who loves playing on quicker courts. Her losses? They come against the likes of Madison Keys, Barbora Krejcikova and Lauren Davis (in two tiebreaks). On lower-bouncing fast courts none of those are particularly poor losses. She's been demonstrably better on grass, despite playing much tougher opponents.
I have this spread at five games and will jump all over the -3.5, even at an expensive price. If you have a book that is at -4, that's a good number as well.
Picks: Martincova -3.5 games (-135 via Caesars)
Cristina Bucsa (-190) vs Kamilla Rakhimova (+158)
6 a.m ET
In another matchup where I feel there's an edge to be gained by weighing up surface preference, I'm going to back Kamilla Rakhimova to pull off the (supposed) upset against Cristina Bucsa. I only use that phrase because the market has, for some reason, sized up the Russian as the clear underdog.
I'm not sure if it was the perplexing lopsided loss to Marcela Zacarias (certainly an exception more than the rule) or because Bucsa beat Daria Saville, but this price isn't right.
Rakhimova has a better track record on quicker courts for my money and her forehand is easily the shot in this matchup most likely to dictate play and finish points.
While Bucsa is a strong returner and defender, Rakhimova isn't poor on that front either and is the more likely of the two to find more holds of serve.
I won't read too much into the 0-2 record on the season for the 21-year old, considering the aforementioned Zacarias match and the fact that the other loss came in a three-set match where each one of the sets was decided by a razor-thin margin against the powerful game of a quick-court specialist in Jodie Burrage.
Pick: Rakhimova ML (+158 via FanDuel)
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