WTA Cluj-Napoca Tennis Odds, Predictions: Trust Kalinina to Grind Down Bouchard (October 11)

WTA Cluj-Napoca Tennis Odds, Predictions: Trust Kalinina to Grind Down Bouchard  (October 11) article feature image

Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Eugenie Bouchard.

WTA Cluj-Napoca is off to an incredible start and the action continues on Tuesday, with Anhelina Kalinina and Eugenie Bouchard both in action.

I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's intriguing matches.

Read on for my odds analysis and prediction!

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.

Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (-340) vs. Irina Bara (+260)

6:30 a.m. ET

Nuria Parrizas-Diaz will be looking to snap a five-match losing streak. Most recently, she fell to Harriet Dart 2-6, 4-6 in the first round of her last tournament in Monastir. Parrizas-Diaz struggled on serve, winning just 40% of her service points and facing 19 break points during the match.

While Parrizas-Diaz is 11-14 on hard courts for the season, she is 311-173 on hard as a professional. The Spaniard tries to stay on the front foot of rallies, maintaining control of the baseline and playing with controlled aggression, although some of that control has been gone in recent matches.

Parrizas-Diaz is especially competent at hitting angled groundstrokes to take her opposition off the court.

Irina Bara has failed to win consecutive main-draw matches since Bonita Springs (clay) in early May. She lost her last match against Kateryna Baindl 0-6, 3-6 in Parma (clay) qualifying.

Though Bara is 18-17 on clay this year, she is just 5-9 on hard courts in 2022.  In her career, Bara is just 39-56 on hard courts, clearly preferring the dirt. This is because Bara doesn't have the power to consistently be competitive off of clay.

While she is consistent, her depth isn't great and she has very little power, so opponents can hit the Romanian off the court on quicker surfaces.

This is the perfect bounce-back match for Parrizas-Diaz. Bara will put very little pressure on the Spaniard, allowing Parrizas-Diaz to move Bara around the court until she finds an opening to put her away.

Bara has struggled on hard courts for a reason and she doesn't have the game to take Parrizas-Diaz out of her comfort zone on hard. Bara's groundstrokes sit up much more than Parrizas-Diaz's do, waiting to get smacked.

This is reflected in their respective hard-court Elo ratings, as Parrizas-Diaz's Elo on hard is 136.8 points better than Bara's.

Pick: Bara to NOT Win a Set  (-116 via FanDuel)

Eugenie Bouchard (-136) vs. Anhelina Kalinina(+112)

11 a.m. ET

Eugenie Bouchard qualified for Ostrava last week, but lost in a competitive first-round match to Belinda Bencic, 7-6(7), 1-6, 4-6. Bouchard won just 63% of her first serves and faced 12 break points, getting broken on four occasions.

Bouchard is 5-5 since returning to the WTA Tour in Vancouver. She has played with decent controlled aggression and can play quite well on hard courts, with a 185-145 career-record. Bouchard tries to take the initiative during points, serving big and being aggressive from the baseline whenever she can.

However, there are times when Bouchard can become erratic with her groundstrokes.

Anhelina Kalinina hasn't played since withdrawing in the second round of the US Open when she was set to face Petra Kvitova. However, Kalinina was just sick, as opposed to injured, so I'm not worried about her physically coming into this matchup.

Kalinina gets consistent depth from the baseline and places her groundstrokes well. While she doesn't have extreme firepower, she is able to hit into openings that present themselves. She also has quick foot speed and excellent endurance. Opponents are able to overpower her from the baseline at times, however.

Bouchard's level is improving, but her rally tolerance and ability to ramp up the pace during rallies while maintaining control her groundstrokes isn't quite where it needs to be yet. Kalinina is so consistent from the baseline and will be able to grind the Canadian down.

She will force Bouchard to consistently play a lot of extra shots, wearing her down and forcing her to lower the margins on her groundstrokes.

Although Bouchard has a small sample size of matches over the past year, it is worth noting that Kalinina's overall Elo is 163.7 points better than Bouchard's and her hard-court Elo is 143.1 points better than the Canadian's.

Pick: Kalinina ML (+112 via FanDuel)

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