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WTA Lausanne Tennis Odds, Picks and Predictions: Leolia Jeanjean Undervalued Against Tatjana Maria (Wednesday, July 13)

WTA Lausanne Tennis Odds, Picks and Predictions: Leolia Jeanjean Undervalued Against Tatjana Maria (Wednesday, July 13) article feature image

Via Robert Prange/Getty Images. Pictured: Leolia Jeanjean of France in action against Maria Sakkari of Greece in her first round match on Day 2 of the bett1open 2022 Berlin.

  • David Gertler breaks down two WTA Lausanne matches on Wednesday with a pair of best bets.
  • He is eying one underdog another favorite to back in these matchups.
  • Check out his picks and analysis below.

It’s been an exciting week of tennis in Lausanne so far, and the action continues on Wednesday.

I’ve found two spots on Wednesday’s order of play where value has presented itself.

Read on for my Lausanne best bets and previews.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

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Tatjana Maria (-182) vs. Leolia Jeanjean (+148)

Note: This match was cancelled due to Maria’s withdrawal from the event.

Tatjana Maria is coming off the biggest result of her career after making the semifinals of Wimbledon. Less than a week later, she will be playing once again, yet this time on clay. It is important to note, however, that Maria did win Bogota earlier this season on clay in altitude conditions (Lausanne is in altitude, but over 7000 feet lower than Bogota).

The German is 12-5 on clay this season, although seven of those wins came in Bogota. Overall in her career, Maria has a respectable 219-177 record on the dirt. However, Maria generally does better on quicker, lower-bouncing surfaces, as her slices sit up more, and it’s harder to effectively approach the net.

Leolia Jeanjean qualified for Lausanne without dropping a set. After beating Lena Papadakis, Jeanjean took down Yuki Naito 6-0, 7-5 to qualify. She won 76% of her first serves against Naito and 53% of her return points. Overall in qualifying, Jeanjean won 57% of her return points and broke serve 13 times.

Jeanjean is 71-34 as a professional on clay, including 12-6 this season. She plays with controlled aggression and can dictate play with her heavy forehand. The Frenchwoman also has good variety and a high rally tolerance.

Jeanjean has the advantage of having played in these conditions during qualifying, and, having played in Bastad last week, she should be comfortable on clay.

On the other hand, Maria is 34 years old and has played six weeks in a row, all on grass, and is coming off her first-ever Major semifinal. She likely won’t be ready to play a WTA 250 match on clay after playing the Wimbledon semifinal just last Thursday.

Maria won’t do nearly as much damage from her slice as she did at Wimbledon, and Jeanjean’s consistency and good movement will make this match physical. The Frenchwoman will also dictate play with her forehand and force a weary Maria into defensive positions of the court where she is less comfortable.

Pick: Jeanjean +2.5 games (-104 via FanDuel)

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Sara Sorribes Tormo (-370) vs. Clara Burel (+280)

11:30 a.m. ET

Sara Sorribes Tormo comfortably defeated Lauren Davis 6-2, 7-6(1) to open up her Lausanne campaign. Sorribes Tormo was clutch, saving two set points in the second set. The Spaniard made her mark on return, winning 54% of her return points and breaking serve six times in 10 return games.

Sorribes Tormo is a quality player on clay, with a 218-109 career-record on the surface. This season, Sorribes Tormo has gone 8-3 on clay, with one of those losses a retirement when the Spaniard was leading. Sorribes Tormo moves incredibly well around the court, counterpunches very effectively, and her rally tolerance is among the best on the WTA Tour.

Clara Burel ended a four-match losing streak in the first round, defeating Lin Zhu 6-0, 6-1.  Zhu hadn’t played on clay since Roland Garros and was off her game, but Burel still played a great match. The Frenchwoman won 81% of her service points and failed to face a break point. On return, Burel broke Zhu’s serve five times, winning 68% of her first-serve return points.

Burel has struggled from the baseline since the season began, struggling to balance control and consistency. She’s just 8-15 on the season, with a 6-9 record on clay for the year. While Burel has decent power, she will need to stay patient against Sorribes Tormo’s excellent defense.

It’s discouraging for Burel that she faced a solid player in Su Jeong Jang last week on clay in Bastad and lost 2-6, 1-6. Burel struggled to hit through Jang, which is worrisome given Sorribes Tormo’s defense and rally tolerance.

Burel does not have a ton of margin on her groundstrokes as is and will leak unforced errors due to Sorribes Tormo’s consistency. The Spaniard’s counterpunching ability will also be vital in this match.

When looking at Elo ratings, Sorribes Tormo’s overall Elo is 301.1 points higher than Burel’s, and her clay-court Elo is 278.6 points higher than the Frenchwoman’s. Expect Sorribes Tormo to cruise to a win on Wednesday.

Pick: Burel to Not Win a Set (-128 via FanDuel)

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