WTA Monterrey Tennis Picks, Predictions: Our 2 Best Bets for Parrizas Diaz vs. Sorribes Tormo & Osorio vs. Svitolina
Cesar Gomez/Jam Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Camila Osorio.
It’s been a fun week of tennis in Monterrey so far and we’re down to the final eight competitors. All eight players have one goal in mind: Win the title.
With trips to the semifinals on the line, players will be battling hard to get one step closer to the winner’s trophy.
And the good news for us is that value has presented itself in two of Friday’s matches.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching tennis matches.
Nuria Parrizas Diaz (+168) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo (-230)
4:00 p.m. ET, WTA Monterrey
Nuria Parrizas Diaz was very mentally tough in her 6-4, 7-6 (2) win over Heather Watson. Parrizas Diaz was down a break on four separate occasions during the match and still managed to win in straight sets.
Parrizas Diaz held the Brit to 39% of her second serves won and broke Watson’s serve five times. The Spaniard used angles to her advantage in this match, especially on the backhand side. This took Watson out of her comfort zone and broke up her rhythm from the baseline.
Parrizas Diaz also won in straight sets in her first round victory over Misaki Doi. In addition to the aforementioned angles, she hits a heavy ball from the ground and does a decent job of controlling the baseline.
Sara Sorribes Tormo is playing herself into form. In her most recent match against Harmony Tan in Monterrey, Sorribes Tormo easily won 6-2, 6-2.
Sorribes Tormo was fantastic on her serve, winning 73% of her first-serve points, 82% of her second-serve points, and never even facing a break point. On return, the Spaniard won 48% of her return points and was able to break Tan’s serve on four occasions.
Sorribes Tormo’s consistency, anticipation, and counterpunching were excellent in the win over Tan. This match felt like an extension of the dominant third set in her first round victory over Kamilla Rakhimova. When Sorribes Tormo is covering the court like she has in her past three sets, there’s little opponents can do.
I don’t believe that Parrizas Diaz has the rally tolerance nor level of controlled aggression necessary to beat Sorribes Tormo from the baseline. Parrizas Diaz can have stretches, like we saw against Watson, where she really struggles with her range. This does not bode well against someone with Sorribes Tormo’s style.
I also don’t think Parrizas Diaz hits quite big enough to really make Sorribes Tormo uncomfortable from the baseline.
When looking at Elo ratings, Sorribes Tormo’s overall Elo is 139.6 points better than Parrizas Diaz and her hard-court Elo is 192.9 points better.
Sorribes Tormo is the stronger player and this is a good matchup for her to cover.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo -3.5 games (-120 via FanDuel)
Camila Osorio (+220) vs Elina Svitolina (-300)
8:15 p.m. ET, WTA Monterrey
Camila Osorio managed to eventually get past Marcela Zacarias 7-6(2), 6-3. It was a tough match against an opponent playing in her home country, but Osorio’s consistent depth, speed around the court, and precision when she had an opening eventually won out over the Mexican.
Osorio was very good on return. She won 51% of her return points and broke Zacarias serve five times. Despite Zacarias serving at 78% first serves in, she only won 50% of her first-serve points.
Osorio has yet to drop a set this tournament, beating Magdalena Frech in straight sets in the first round, as well. Osorio hasn’t been at her best this tournament, but she’s been gritty and has showcased a high tennis IQ.
Elina Svitolina struggled in her second round match with Viktoriya Tomova, but ended up winning 76(3), 3-6, 6-2. Svitolina’s consistency and foot speed were too much for Tomova in the end.
Svitolina won 51% of her return points and broke Tomova’s serve seven times during the match. She generated 19 break points during the match.
However, Svitolina has really struggled this season to put points away and get the depth on her shots that she once had. While she may be able to get away with it against a player like Tomova, she won’t be able to against the top of the WTA Tour.
Svitolina’s level of play this season has been disappointing and her level hasn’t significantly increased this week in Monterrey. Osorio’s consistency is quite good and Svitolina will struggle to outlast her from the baseline.
And, with as many short balls as Svitolina has been giving up lately, Osorio will have her chances to control the baseline and step up in the court.
Osorio’s current level is much closer to Svitolina’s than the odds indicate and I expect the Colombian to keep this match close, if not win outright.
Pick: Osorio +4.5 games (-120 via BetMGM)
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