Fever Dream. That’s how it feels writing up my first side/total of the 2025 season, which also happens to be my 20th year betting the WNBA. I kicked things off with a win on Maddy Siegrist Over 8.5 points, and now I’m turning to totals. You can always find my spread, total and moneyline projections in our PRO team projections, and this play is my biggest edge of the day — a B+ rating as I have this game projected at 168.5 total points.
Dream vs. Fever Best Bet
Dream vs. Fever Betting Analysis, Pick
We’re still early in the season, with each team having just one game under their belt, so naturally we’re dealing with limited data. That said, I still believe this number is slightly inflated.
The Fever opened their season with a dominant 93-58 win over the Chicago Sky — a game that totaled just 151 points, well under the 169.5 closing total.
Indiana certainly held up its end offensively, but the Sky couldn’t buy a bucket. Chicago shot just 29% from the field and went 6-of-12 from the free-throw line. While I’m not rushing to give the Fever full credit for that defensive effort, there’s reason to believe this is a team that will take a legitimate step forward on that end this season.
One key factor is the addition of DeWanna Bonner. Though she just moved into third place on the WNBA’s all-time scoring list, it’s her defensive value that may be more important here.
Bonner ranked fifth in defensive win shares last season and brings veteran presence, versatility and stability to a Fever defense that ranked second-worst in the league last year (107.5 defensive rating). That rating won’t flip overnight, but I expect significant improvement.
Meanwhile, the Dream’s opener was the highest-scoring game of the season so far — a 94–90 loss to the Mystics. But context matters. Washington followed that up by playing in the third-highest scoring game of the year against the Sun, so it’s possible this pace and scoring spike is more about the Mystics than the Dream.
Both of those Mystics games featured exactly 58 free-throw attempts — the highest totals of the season — which further inflated the scoring. That kind of volume from the line is unsustainable and not necessarily reflective of pace or offensive efficiency.
Speaking of pace: Atlanta was expected to play faster under new head coach Karl Smesko, but we didn’t see it in the opener. Th Dream's pace/40 was just 79, the third-slowest game of the year. That may tick up over time, but it’s hard to imagine the Dream actively trying to speed things up against a Fever team led by Caitlin Clark, especially as sizable underdogs. Giving Clark more possessions isn’t in their best interest.
After adjusting for each team’s opener and their opponent context, I’ve landed on a total projection of 168.5. With the current market at 172.5, I see value and have this as my favorite total on the board today.
