The Atlanta Dream (12-8) and New York Liberty (13-6) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 3:00 p.m. EDT at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on Peachtree TV.
The Liberty are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 166.5 (-110o / -110u). The Liberty are a -170 favorite to win outright, while the Dream are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Dream vs. Liberty prediction and WNBA picks.
Dream vs. Liberty Odds, Pick
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Dream vs. Liberty Spread: Liberty -3.5 (-110 ), Dream +3.5 (-110)
- Dream vs. Liberty Over/Under: 166.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Dream vs. Liberty Moneyline: Dream +140, Liberty -170
- Dream vs. Liberty Best Bet: Liberty Moneyline
Dream vs. Liberty Preview
The Liberty fell into a funk over the past couple weeks, but are in the middle of a lengthy homestand that could help them generate some momentum. New York is already 2-1 on this homestand and will now host an Atlanta side that it's 1-1 against the season.
The Liberty beat the Dream by five in New York early this season, but the Dream bounced back with a nine-point win in Atlanta in late June.
Atlanta has lost two of three and will be playing its second consecutive road game after losing to the Fever on Friday night.
These teams are separated by just a game and a half in the standings, so this is a pivotal matchup for both sides. The home team won each of the previous two matchups, and New York is 8-2 at home while Atlanta is 4-5 on the road. Will homecourt decide this matchup as well?
Let's look further into this matchup.
Dream vs. Liberty Prediction
This system targets mid-tier WNBA teams — those winning between roughly one-fifth and two-thirds of their games — when they’re listed as moderate moneyline favorites during the regular season. These are teams that aren’t overly dominant, but are still competent enough to handle business.
The opposing teams are typically deeper into their season (between 20 and 68 games played), which provides a more stable benchmark for performance trends. By focusing on the sweet spot of moneylines between -180 and -148, this system identifies value where public attention may lean too heavily on the opponent’s perceived experience or momentum, allowing efficient teams to be slightly underpriced in favorable matchups.
Overall, this system is 151-69 (69%) and has generated an 11% ROI. This season, this system is 1-0 (60% ROI).
Best Bet: Liberty Moneyline
