Las Vegas Aces WNBA Title Odds: 2023 Preseason Betting Analysis & Preview

Las Vegas Aces WNBA Title Odds: 2023 Preseason Betting Analysis & Preview article feature image

Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: The Las Vegas Aces celebrate after Game 4 of the 2022 WNBA Finals.

Las Vegas Aces WNBA Title Odds

2023 WNBA Title Odds+115
Previous Season Overall Record26-10
Previous Season ATS Record19-18
Previous Season O/U Record20-17
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.

The Las Vegas Aces were crowned champions in 2022 and are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back championships in the WNBA since the Los Angeles Sparks in 2001 and 2002. As it stands, oddsmakers like their chances to pull off the repeat. They enter the 2023 WNBA season with the shortest title odds at +115, according to FanDuel.

Here’s a look at their notable moves over the offseason and analysis on how to approach betting the Aces before the WNBA season tips off.

Notable Offseason Transactions

Additions: Candace Parker, Alysha Clark, Cayla George.

Departures: Dearica Hamby.

Betting Analysis

The Aces enter the 2023 season as the odds-on favorites to win the title. It's a fair designation given they absolutely ran through the league last season. They went 26-10 in the regular season before a 8-2 postseason run where they really hit their stride en route to the franchise's first title.

In the offseason, they added one of the 10-15 best players in league history (Candace Parker) and addressed depth issues with one of the most valuable role players in the league (Alysha Clark). They have the reigning Coach of the Year, the reigning MVP, the reigning Most Improved Player and a First-Team All-WNBA player not even included in any of that. It's an embarrassment of riches.

So why do I have the Liberty as the team I am betting to win the title? A few reasons.

At most books, you can get a longer number on the Liberty, and despite the continuity of the Aces, this feels very close to a coin flip. The bigger factor for me is team depth. Although the Aces added Clark, their depth still doesn't match the Liberty's on paper.

If these teams were to simply zoom to the Finals right now (something the media is doing right now much to the chagrin of the rest of the league), I would actually lean to the Aces. However, this is a future play. There is a long season ahead for the Liberty to build some continuity, and for both teams to potentially suffer injuries.

The Aces had almost historic team health last season. Their starting five missed a grand total of five games. Their two best players played every single game. For a team lacking in depth, this was essential. The entire team was in their 20s, so there's maybe a touch of skill, not luck, to that health fortune, but Chelsea Gray is now 30 and Candace Parker — while still incredibly talented — is going to bring up the average age on the team.

There's obviously still a ton to love here and plenty of ways to bet them.

The Aces absolutely dominated the first half of games last season, blitzing their opponents and cruising to victories in the second half. Aces first-half spreads will be a common bet for me this season. However, they are quietly also a high-variance team because of not just how many threes they take, but also how many threes they give up. As such, I likely will sprinkle their opponent moneylines in games where the number gets its longest.

However, if it's a team that can't hang on the offensive glass, I may avoid because Las Vegas could be historic on both the offensive and defensive glass given how strong they were last season, along with the addition of Parker. Teams without a healthy defensive rebounding presence (Lynx, Storm) could get steamrolled.

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