The Phoenix Mercury (12-21) and Washington Mystics (18-12) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET at CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC. The game will be broadcast live on MNMT.
The Mystics are favored by -1.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 167.5 (-108o / -112u). The Mystics are a -112 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are -108 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Mystics predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Mystics Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 167.5 -108o / -112u | -108 |
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 167.5 -108o / -112u | -112 |
- Mercury vs. Mystics Spread: -Mercury +1.5 (-118), Mystics -1.5 (-104)
- Mercury vs. Mystics Over/Under: 167.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Mercury vs. Mystics Moneyline: Mercury -108, Mystics -112
- Mercury vs. Mystics Best Bet: Mystics -1.5 (-104)
Mercury vs. Mystics Preview
Our Bet Labs "Non-Playoff Teams Favored vs. Playoff Teams, High Total" system picks the Mystics ATS based on current performance, and also points out how favorable perception over a former playoff team like the Mercury might still be in play for such a short spread.
Another factor is Phoenix's recent addition: star guard Kelsey Plum, who has led the team in scoring in their past two contests, showing an easy transition to new teammates and surroundings.
However, they are visiting Washington to face the hottest team in the league.
The Mystics are on the final contest of a 6-game homestand, winning all of them so far. Their six-game winning streak includes their last road matchup against the Valkyries before coming back home.
With their current form, the Mystics should be able to cover such a short spread.
Mercury vs. Mystics Prediction
This system identifies value in regular-season WNBA games where a non-playoff team from last season, like the Mystics, is favored over a team that made the playoffs, such as the Mercury.
The assumption is that the market undervalues current-year improvements or motivation for the non-playoff team.
The edge is further amplified in high-total games (158–188), which often signal pace or scoring confidence, typically associated with better teams, but here, the lesser-known favorite may be more explosive than assumed.
This mispricing creates a spread edge for the non-playoff favorite.
Best Bet: Mystics -1.5 (-104, FanDuel)
