The Phoenix Mercury (2-8) and Seattle Storm (3-7) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Wash. The game will be broadcast live on USA.
The Mercury are favored by -6.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 162.5 (-110o / -110u). The Mercury are a -245 favorite to win outright, while the Storm are +200 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Storm predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Storm Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
- Mercury vs. Storm Spread: Mercury -6.5 (-115), Storm +6.5 (-105)
- Mercury vs. Storm Over/Under: 162.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Mercury vs. Storm Moneyline: Mercury -245, Storm +200
- Mercury vs. Storm Best Bet: Storm Team Total Under 78.5 points (-120)
Mercury vs. Storm Preview
Something will have to give when the Mercury head to Seattle to face the Storm in Wednesday's Commissioner's Cup matchup. Both teams enter the contest on losing streaks, with Seattle winless in three games and Phoenix winless in its last six.
While the Storm have the slightly better record at 3-7, it's worth noting that Seattle has currently played the softest schedule per TeamRankings, with three of their games coming against a Connecticut Sun team that has the worst win percentage in the league at .182.
In comparison, Phoenix has faced a grueling schedule, with only two games against opponents below .500.
However, while I respect the market's decision to install Phoenix as road favorites, we can exploit further vulnerabilities by simply targeting Seattle on its team total derivative of 78.5.
Mercury vs. Storm Prediction
A deep dive into this Storm team reveals clear structural problems in player-defined roles and roster construction. For example, starting point guard Natisha Hiedeman is having to take on more scoring responsibility due to Seattle's lack of an offensive threat.
Seattle lost five players in Nneka Ogwumike (18.3 PPG), Skylar Diggins (15.5 PPG), Brittney Sykes (11.8 PPG), Gabby Williams (11.6 PPG) and Erica Wheeler (10.3 PPG), who all spent time in the starting rotation from last season's team that reached the playoffs.
Another starter, forward Ezi Magbegor, has yet to feature this season due to a foot injury, while center Dominique Malonga has missed the last seven games with a concussion.
Given the loss of firepower, you almost can't blame Hiedeman for doing a bit more offensively.
However, the offense simply isn't functioning well, as Seattle ranks last in assists with 16.8 per game. The reality is Seattle isn't good enough to create shots on its own, so ideally, ball movement should be a priority.
Seattle could certainly benefit from more fast-break opportunities. Of the three teams with the lowest offensive efficiency, Seattle ranks last in transition, averaging just 6.6 points per game.
Moreover, since losing Magbegor, Seattle has scored more than 78 points just once in its last seven games.
With Phoenix and Seattle ranking in the bottom half for pace, this situational spot looks ripe for the Storm to stay under their team total.
Best Bet: Storm Team Total Under 78.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)
