Sun vs. Lynx WNBA Odds, Predictions: The 59% Profitable Pick Since 2005 (Sunday, July 24)
Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Sylvia Fowles.
Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds
|Over/Under||164.5 (o -114 / u-106)|
|Date||Sunday, July 24|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
*Odds via FanDuel as of Sunday morning
The Action Network has developed a historically profitable betting system that jibes with this WNBA game on Friday night.
If you had bet $100 on the moneyline for the 244 WNBA games that have fit this system since 2005, you’d be up $3,422.50.
That’s over $200 per year, good for a 14% return on investment (ROI) — or 14 cents in profit per dollar wagered over a lengthy sample size.
Only about 15 WNBA contests per season fit this algorithm, which factors in betting data across major American sportsbooks. That data is also proprietary to the Action Network.
11 contests have already occurred this season, in which $100 per game bettors would have made $45, indicating this model still has room to run before it roughly evens out at the $207 per year profit it has averaged since the Bush administration.
WNBA Betting System Picks for Sunday
This algorithm targets losing home teams that are facing off against tired visitors — but ones that have performed well against the spread in recent games.
The visiting team needs to have played at least three games over the last seven days in order to fade them. In the WNBA, with matchups typically well spread apart, that’s a substantial amount of gameplay.
The visitor also needs to have won its last one, two, three or four straight games ATS. Retail bettors love these sorts of teams — the ones on a run.
And our home team needs to have a poor ATS record on the season.
The public tends to fade these types of teams. Sharp bettors understand, though, that ultimately teams positively regress to a roughly 50% mean ATS.
The actual number for the spread doesn’t matter — just these aforementioned parameters.
For this contest between the Sun and Lynx, these trends fit Minnesota’s spread. The best price on the market is with Caesars at +5 (-110).
Since 2005, these teams like the Lynx — under these specific parameters — have covered 58.6% of the time with a return on investment of 14% over an extended sample size.
But while today might be the day to cash in, please keep in mind that the $207 per year profit is accrued over a season-long sample size.
The best way to maximize that full 14% ROI is to bet on every game that fits this system for the remainder of the season. About three more games will fit this framework in 2022.
PRO Picks: Lynx +5 (-110) or better
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