Sunday WNBA Odds, Picks, Previews & Predictions: 4 Bets, Featuring Dream vs. Mercury & Fever vs. Storm (July 17)
Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Skylar Diggins-Smith
- The WNBA has an exciting four-game slate on Sunday, and our WNBA analyst has four best bets for you to tail.
- He's eying a variety of different bets including prop bets, team totals and spread bets.
- Check out Jim Turvey's picks and analysis below.
Welcome back, folks. We have come out of the gates strong after the All-Star Break (I guess the players weren’t the only ones who needed a breather) and are back to positive ROIs both in the article plays and on the app. I feel confident about that continuing.
Sunday’s slate is a fun one. For one, the games are mostly spread out, giving us a full afternoon and evening of basketball. The matinee matchup between the Sun and the Aces should be an outstanding game, even without Jonquel Jones–ABC viewers are in for a treat.
We also will see several teams in that bottom half of the potential playoff bracket. We are getting closer and closer to seeing whether those teams should chase the playoffs or position themselves for Aliyah Boston and co. in the draft.
Let’s get to the picks.
Article plays: 28-24-0 (10.3 percent ROI)
Action Network app plays: 49-45-1 (0.8 percent ROI)
WNBA Odds, Picks
Click on game to skip ahead
|Aces vs. Sun||1 p.m. ET|
|Lynx vs. Mystics||3 p.m. ET|
|Dream vs. Mercury||6 p.m. ET|
|Fever vs. Storm||6 p.m. ET|
Aces vs. Sun
|Moneyline||-115 / -106|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.|
The big name on the injury report, and one which wasn’t announced at line opening (but clearly some people knew based on the line set — hold that thought), is that Jonquel Jones is out due to health and safety protocols.
Jasmine Thomas remains out for the season for the Sun while the Aces injury report remains clean.
As I mentioned above, Jones wasn’t on the official injury report until this morning, but I’m pretty sure some folks knew already. When the line came out, it was Aces -2.5 on the road, which seemed like a wild number. I instantly grabbed the Connecticut side and logged it in the Action Network app.
However, I cashed it out this morning at a slight loss with the Jones news. If these two teams were both fully healthy, I would have Connecticut favored slightly (maybe something around -1.5 or -2), but with Jones out, and the line having moved back to around Las Vegas -1.5, this side is a stay away for me.
However, there is some great news! BetRivers came out with player props for today’s games. I am really hoping this catches on, and all the other books will start to do the same. It will really open up some more fun betting pathways to travel down.
It will also be a massive moneymaker if books fall asleep at the wheel a bit, as BetRivers has this morning. Hopefully you see this while it’s still up (I also logged them in the app as soon as I could, so a reminder to make sure to follow there) because they have all their player lines for Connecticut set with Jonquel Jones still in the lineup.
Consequently, I am grabbing the points and rebounds overs for all Sun players listed, with the 15 points and nine rebounds a game Jones typically averages now to be dispersed.
Pick: Over 12.5 Points DeWanna Bonner; 12.5 Points Brionna Jones; 13.5 Points Alyssa Thomas, and 7.5 Rebounds Alyssa Thomas (the Brionna Jones points and Alyssa Thomas rebounds are my favorite of the two, and I would take them even a couple higher each)
Lynx vs. Mystics
|Moneyline||+143 / -170|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.|
This is a big wait-and-see right now. As of now, the only player on either team listed as out is the long-term absence of Napheesa Collier.
However, it appears as though the books think Elena Delle Donne will be out. Let’s dive into that more.
Wait and See (and Maybe Just Stay Away)
The line being at Washington -3.5 tells me that the books think EDD is out today. She has played the first two games back from the All-Star Break, and she has only played in three straight games twice this season, typically with a bit longer between games.
If she is indeed out, this line feels about right and would be a stay away for me.
However, I do wonder if the Mystics will start trying to rev her up to play more consistently after the break. With the playoffs coming, the question becomes whether Mike Thibault and the Mystics are going to have their superstar available each game in the postseason. We have noted many times in this article just how important EDD is to the Mystics’ bottom line.
If the team is indeed trying to work her into more full-time play, and she is ruled in for this game, obviously snatch this line at -3.5, and honestly all the way up to -5.5. However, that line move is going to come quick, so you’ll have to be hawking that announcement. It might not be worth the investment unless you stumble into seeing the news before the books do — which is not an impossible task with a sport they gloss over as much as the WNBA).
Pick: Washington -3.5 if EDD plays
Dream vs. Mercury
|Moneyline||+210 / -260|
|Time||6 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.|
The Atlanta injury report has been anything but a dream lately, and that continues with three rotations players ruled out for Sunday: Monique Billings (ankle), Nia Coffey (knee), and most importantly Rhyne Howard (shoulder).
For the Mercury, this section leads, as always, with the wrongful absence of Brittney Griner, but they also are missing Diamond DeShields on Sunday with a hip injury.
Pivot Points for Both Teams
These are two teams that seem like they are arriving at a decision point in the season: whether to go all in and chase one of those shiny new seven and eight seeds, or whether to go the opposite direction.
In the case of the Dream, that would look like shutting down their star rookie to make sure she does no long-term damage to her shoulder. For the Mercury, that might look like shipping their disgruntled superstar, Skylar Diggins-Smith, to a fresh new team. (It could also look like parting ways with the coach who seems to be at least part of the chemistry issues.)
Combine those unknowns with the hefty injury report above, and I want no part of either side of this spread. I do think the Mercury will win, but at the moneyline price, it’s a bit too steep.
The angle I do think makes sense is the over. DeShields and Howard are both plus defenders, and while both contribute on the offensive side as well, the Dream defense has been slipping a bit after their strong start.
There’s also the fact that the strength of the Atlanta defense is packing the paint, while Phoenix thrives on the perimeter. The Dream actually allow teams to get off a lot of threes, so I like an alternate line over in this game, which could pay out well with a bit of rim luck for Phoenix.
Lean: Phoenix Over 85.5 Points +140
Fever vs. Storm
|Moneyline||+820 / -1429|
|Time||6 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.|
The only player on the Fever injury list is Lexie Hull, who is questionable with a wrist injury.
For the Storm, Mercedes Russell, who has been out for a while, is the only name there.
If you have been reading these previews, you will know that my approach to betting the W often centers around how teams matchup in key parts of the game. For instance, if Team A thrives off fastbreak points, while Team B turns the ball over a lot, I’m going to look at Team A as potentially having an edge in the market.
Of course, I don’t go strictly by these types of factors, but I have found them to be a strong foundation to build off of.
That being said, there are times where it’s fair to ask if it borders on not seeing the forest for the trees.
This game is a perfect example. The Fever actually match up well with the Storm in many ways. Indiana gets demolished in the paint, while Seattle does most of its work on the perimeter. The Fever are also one of the top offensive rebounding teams, and their second-chance points are one of the few statistical categories in which they rank in the top half of the league. The Storm are a bit vulnerable on the offensive glass.
However, this is also a Fever team that is undeniably bad. They are easily the worst team in the W this season, and the Storm have been playing some of the best basketball in the league lately. It’s quite easy to see an Indiana lean as not seeing the forest for the trees.
With all that in mind, I’m going to stick with a Fever cover. I’m making it just a lean, but underdogs of over 14 points are 67-42-6 all-time against the spread in WNBA history (and the trend is even stronger in recent years, but the sample is much smaller of course), and it’s generally a good rule to grab that many points.
Lean: Indiana +14.5