Sean Koerner

Earlier this morning I wasn’t seeing much value on the board. The market looked sharp, so I moved on to my Week 13 projections assuming I would sit this one out. But almost all the action has been on Purdy’s rush over, which pushed his line from 7.5 up to 10.5. That is a massive move for a QB rush prop. I agreed with the opening number and think the inflation gives us a good chance to hit the under. I’ve been saying since early 2023 that Purdy had more rushing upside than people realized. He has great short-area speed and I even said he could offer Mahomes-like rushing upside. And he has. He can rip off big runs when he wants, so this prop always comes with risk. He can erase it with one scramble. But I think this is the right spot to fade him. Purdy came back from a toe injury last week and I wasn’t expecting him to run much. He didn’t. His only carry was a broken play where Brian Robinson Jr. wasn’t on the same page and Purdy basically sat down because he saw 300-pound Walter Nolen charging at him. He looked like a man who had zero interest in taking off to run when that play broke down. He should be closer to 100% tonight, so I expect he will run if he has to, but he may not have to. The Panthers have the 3rd lowest pressure rate in the league, so Purdy should have a clean pocket and be able to stay in rhythm instead of taking off. They also do a good job limiting QB rushing in general. @nick_giffen noted they have the 4th lowest scramble rate over expected. They’ve also allowed the 5th lowest yards per scramble at 6.1 yards. They’ve kept good running QBs in check: Drake Maye (3/11/1), Josh Allen (3/7/2), Justin Fields (4/22/0). I have Purdy for 1-2 scrambles tonight. If he gets both he might sneak over, but there’s also a real chance those extra yards get wiped out by kneel downs (7.5 point favorites). Mac Jones was the QB sneak guy in this offense, not Purdy. They didn’t use Purdy that way last week and they may want to protect him given the recent injury. I have his median closer to 7.5 which was the opener. My sim has about a 10% chance he finishes in the 8-10 yard range. That gives me roughly a 60% chance he stays under 10.5. C’mon Purdy, be a Mall Santa 🎅 for me for one more week.