NFL Player Props: Expert Pick for Eagles vs Buccaneers
Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Jones
NFL Player Props: Expert Picks for Steelers vs Bills, Eagles vs Buccaneers
We unexpectedly have a doubleheader to cap off NFL Wild Card Weekend, and I have NFL player props for Steelers vs. Bills and Eagles vs. Buccaneers.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Player Props
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | -156 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | +132 |
With A.J. Brown out, there's going to be more routes and targets to go around for the Eagles tonight against the Buccaneers.
Over the last couple of weeks, Julio Jones has been operating as the No. 3 wide receiver in this offense. Now, he'll likely be elevated to No. 2 behind DeVonta Smith.
Jones has seen a 21% target rate over the last four games and it could be higher tonight.
I realize Jones is in the twilight of his career, but we are getting a first-ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver's prop at 17.5. Let's not overthink this one.
I'm projecting Jones closer to 25.5 receiving yards tonight.
Steelers vs. Bills Player Props
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -112 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +410 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -108 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
Even when Dawson Knox was operating as the Bills' lead tight end and Buffalo was employing a more pass-heavy offense (weeks 1-7), he only cleared this number in three games.
Since then, Knox missed five weeks with an injury and saw rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid take over his role while new offensive coordinator Joe Brady made the team more run-heavy as a whole.
Knox has cleared this number in three of his last five games, but during that time he caught seven of his eight targets (an 88% catch rate). Typically, we can expect Knox to have around a 70% catch rate, so he's due for some regression in that regard.
This game moving to Monday means the weather should be a bit better, but it'll still be cold and fairly windy, and Knox is still the clear No. 2 tight end option and fairly low on the target pecking order.
I'm projecting his median closer to 10.5 yards with a 60% chance he stays under 14.5.
Pick: Dawson Knox Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-130 at DraftKings)
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