Dolphins vs Chiefs Player Props: Expert Picks for Wild Card Weekend
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: De’Von Achane (left) and Justin Watson.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Player Props: Expert Picks for Wild Card Weekend
I'm holding off on betting any props on the Miami side, but I have action for Kansas City. Check out my first Dolphins vs. Chiefs player props below.
The forecast calls for freezing temps at Arrowhead on Saturday night, and there also might be 10-15 mph winds that would make it even colder. A warm-weather team that relies on explosive plays could struggle in that sort of environment, and Tagovailoa already has a tough matchup going up against a Chiefs defense that ranks fifth in Pass DVOA.
Tagovailoa's passing yards prop plummeted to 239.5 at most books, and I think it’s a fair number considering the brutal weather and matchup. It’s unclear whether Jaylen Waddle will be able to return from his ankle injury this week, so I’m not racing to bet on Tagovailoa's passing props one way or another.
Tagovailoa's rushing yard prop is currently at 6.5, which I think seems a bit high. He scrambles at a very low rate as 16 of his 35 rush attempts (46%) have come via a scramble (and produced positive yardage). Half of those scrambles went for seven or more yards. Eight of his 35 rush attempts were an aborted snap that went for zero yards, and 11 of his 35 attempts were kneel-downs in the victory formation.
If Tagovailoa does rip off a run of seven or more yards, you'd need him to have 1-2 kneel-downs at the end of the game. That seems less likely this week since the Dolphins are four-point road 'dogs.
I’m projecting Tagovailoa with a 57% chance to stay under 6.5 rush yards, and that’s not even factoring in the chances of him potentially having 1-2 kneel-downs in the event of a Dolphins win. I'd certainly say there is some value on his under, but this is a prop that isn’t for the faint of heart.
Dolphins RBs are already tricky to project, even when both backs are fully healthy, just considering they're volatile players who have rarely both been healthy at the same time this year. With both RBs currently questionable due to various injuries, this isn’t a situation I’m looking to invest in.
We still don’t have a market for either back as of Wednesday afternoon as a result, making it even easier to ignore this situation for now. Once we have attacked all of the other games and markets that are more predictive, we can loop back to Miami’s backfield closer to Saturday.
The same goes for Miami’s pass catchers. Waddle remains questionable, so we don’t have any markets for these players other than Hill.
I’m currently in line with Hill's props, so I don’t see the need to invest in them one way or the other. He's a player who has a wide range of outcomes on a weekly basis so even when I do show 4-5 yards of value, it’s going to carry less weight than showing 4-5 yards of value on a player only expected to see a few targets.
Mahomes is coming off of a down season by his standards. After having Week 18 to rest, though, we could see him return to form in the playoffs.
The Dolphins defense has been decimated by injury with Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker and Xavien Howard all expected to miss this game. It could result in the Chiefs being able to lean on the run game and short-range passes to move the ball down the field. So, I’m not so sure this will result in wanting to invest in Mahomes clearing his props.
Mahomes tends to scramble at a higher rate in the playoffs, and I’m typically giving his rushing projections a boost in these spots as a result. The market seems pretty sharp as of Wednesday afternoon at 28.5. While I’m staying away for now, I'd rather have his over in that market than his under, especially with two starting LBs for the Dolphins expected to miss.
This sets up as an eruption spot for Pacheco, but the market isn’t providing us with much value with his rushing yards prop at 65.5 at most books. That’s currently where I have his median.
With Jerick McKinnon on injured reserve, Pacheco has much more upside in the receiving prop market. He’s averaged 5.5 receptions a game in the two games since McKinnon was placed on IR. He averaged a 62% routes run rate over the two-game sample, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire missed one of those games. That makes it unclear exactly how the Chiefs intend to rotate backs in passing situations.
Either way, I'm in line with Pacheco’s lofty 3.5 receptions prop and the market did a great job of adjusting to this recent trend.
Instead of investing in Pacheco’s overs, which I think is a sharp thing to do considering his upside as a runner and pass catcher in this spot, I think this will open up opportunities to potentially fading teammates who could lose touches at the expense of a big Pacheco game.
I'm completely in line with every prop being offered for Rice. The market has done a good job of boosting his props over the past couple of weeks as he has evolved into the top pass catcher in this offense.
The Chiefs' WR room beyond Rice is a total mess and may offer us some sneaky value.
Despite the Chiefs' WR room being in flux for most of the season, Watson has a pretty defined role where he is typically going to run a route on about 60% of Mahomes’ dropbacks. Typically, he’s going to draw a couple of downfield targets every game. Therefore, he’s a player who is a weekly boom/bust option who has a ton of upside in his yardage prop, while having a ton of downside in his receptions prop.
I’m projecting him closer to 1.4 receptions with a 59% chance he stays under 1.5 receptions. He’s offering some value there at +100, but I’m going to hold off on this one for now.
Toney has had a disastrous season and has made the blooper reel quite a bit this season. He does have a ton of raw talent and is dangerous with the ball in his hands, but he has made too many costly errors this year for the Chiefs to put too much trust in him in the playoffs.
Toney has been limited in practice all week with hip and ankle injuries, so if he does suit up he could be limited. With Richie James and Mecole Hardman both back in the mix, I expect them to eat into Toney’s potential workload. Also, it’s important to remember that Rice’s emergence has also reduced the need for Toney to see much playing time.
I might actually be too generous in projecting Toney for a 27% routes run rate but even with that projected playing time, I’m showing value on all of his unders.
When it comes to Toney, I think the best market to attack is his longest reception market at 9.5 yards. Toney tends to draw targets closer to the line of scrimmage, which is why he only has an average depth of target of 2.9. As a result, he only has six receptions that have cleared 10+ yards (out of 27 total receptions on the season). Only one of those has come since Week 9 due to his playing time trending downward over the second half of the season.
I’m projecting his median closer to seven yards with a 63% chance he stays under 9.5. I'd play that at -125 or better. The line moved to 8.5 at most sportsbooks on Wednesday afternoon, but not BetRivers, where it's -114 as of 6:50 p.m. ET.
Pick: Kadarius Toney Longest Reception Under 9.5 Yards (-114, BetRivers)
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Kelce is coming off a down season, but it could have been due to the knee injury he suffered before Week 1 lingered into the season. There was a chance getting to rest in Week 18 and now the playoffs could kickstart Kelce.
Kelce's props seem very low, but I’m not interested in investing in his props one way or another right now.
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