CFL Betting Tip: How to Bet Undefeated Teams

The two best teams in the CFL take the field Friday (7 p.m. ET) in a potential Grey Cup preview. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-0), the top team in the West Division and the league’s last unbeaten squad, will travel to Ontario to face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-1), the leader in the East Division.

Both offenses are explosive as the Ticats lead the CFL in scoring, averaging 37.4 points per game, and the Bombers are second (33.8 ppg). Don’t overlook the defenses, either, as Winnipeg is first in points allowed (16.0 ppg) and Hamilton is second (20.0 ppg).

In the marquee matchup of Week 7, oddsmakers opened the Blue Bombers as 2-point road favorites against the Tiger-Cats. A majority of spread tickets are on Winnipeg as an undefeated favorite, but are the Blue Bombers a smart bet?

Since 2005, undefeated teams in the CFL have gone 61-70-3 (46.6%) against the spread (ATS) according to Bet Labs. And there is a sharp divide in ATS performance between underdogs and favorites with a perfect record:

Team’s sporting an unblemished record have gone 37-51-2 (42.0%) ATS when favored. This is a small sample but we see similar results in the NFL. Since 2010, undefeated NFL teams that are favored in their next game have gone 93-122-5 (43.3%) ATS.

Why do unbeaten football teams struggle to cover the spread?

Winning attracts the attention of bettors. Oddsmakers anticipate increased handle on undefeated teams and will inflate their lines, which makes it more difficult for these teams to cover. Plus, there is a natural regression in football as few teams finish a season without losing.

More than 60% of bettors are on the Bombers -2, but history suggests they may be disappointed with the results on Friday night.