This is your guide to reshaping how you think about same game parlays so you can hit more, and hit bigger. It's not about shoving more legs into SGPs. It's about exploiting the relationships between certain bets and bet types.
The scale of what DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365 and other modern sportsbooks offer is too much to comprehend. They have to be ready to calculate millions of possible parlay combinations at once.
They simply can’t account for every angle and situation within these complex pricing models. They have to take “league-wide truths” and apply that math to every situation. That results in them pricing the relationships between every bet the same for every team and player.
Their odds aren’t necessarily wrong.
And the math creating the parlay prices isn’t wrong.
And books build in tons of cushion (aka hold).
But they have to take a few numbers and price thousands of markets off those assumptions.
Your job is to identify the situations in which you think the broad pricing infrastructure is missing something, and build your SGPs around that. And don't worry — I'm not recommending you only bet SGPs during black swan situations like Draymond Green taking the opening tip then sitting the rest of the game. These opportunities exist daily, especially in football, because football is such a complicated sport to model and price.
Even with hundreds of world-class engineers and data scientists, sportsbooks have an impossible task.
How could they ever factor in something unique about the way the Sacramento Kings play vs. the Utah Jazz, let alone Finnish soccer club FC Inter Turku?
And they don’t want to even attempt it — to offer SGPs on the NFL and the Bulgarian Second League and the NBA and Mexican women’s basketball, they have to create broad pricing infrastructure. And there will always be an arms race among sportsbooks to offer more.
Don’t take my word for it. Two industry experts wrote an entire book on it.
I've included examples of situations to look for, but hopefully you can take these learnings and start to identify holes in the SGP products as they open and close.
Let's get into the tips.
