The franchise that turned Jennifer Lawrence into a movie star is back, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping wants to prove, ahead of its Nov. 20 premiere, that the saga still has what it takes to pull in a crowd. Lionsgate prequel keeps climbing in the box office trackers’ estimates, and prediction markets are leaning the same way: box office tracking has jumped from a modest mid-range guess to talk of a franchise-best weekend, while reviews are still locked away.
Sunrise on the Reaping Box Office Tracking Rises to $80 Million-Plus
Deadline raised its floor for the film’s domestic opening to $80 million or more, up from the $60 million-to-$70 million range that was circulating just a week earlier. Box office editor Anthony D’Alessandro reported that presales are the strongest Lionsgate has logged for any release since the pandemic, running ahead of both Universal’s Wicked and the studio’s own Michael, which opened to $97.2 million. That Sunrise on the Reaping’s numbers are being measured against Michael Jackson’s biopic says a lot about how big an opening this new Hunger Games chapter could have.
A few things could still work against it: competition from holdovers like Godzilla Minus Zero and Ebenezer, plus I Play Rocky’s wide expansion the same weekend, and the fact that this is the sixth film in a franchise that has historically pulled a more female-skewing audience.
Presales Beat Wicked and Set a Post-Pandemic Lionsgate Record
Two independent trackers, Global Box Office and Empire City Box Office, went further once tickets opened Oct. 28, pegging the film for a $100 million-plus debut. That’s a much rosier read than Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast, which still has the film at $55 million to $65 million in its latest update: proof that The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opening weekend estimates swing wildly depending on who’s counting and when.
Prediction markets are leaning toward the higher end of that gap. Polymarket’s opening-weekend contract prices the $105 million-plus bracket at just under 90%, with roughly 7% more sitting on the $95 million-to-$105 million range: together pointing to nearly a 97% chance the film clears $95 million, and under 2% combined on anything below $75 million. That’s a jump from the 75% Polymarket showed when Deadline first cited the market on Nov. 6.
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Hunger Games Opening Weekends: Catching Fire’s Record vs. Songbirds & Snakes
Even an $80 million debut would land Sunrise on the Reaping comfortably above the franchise’s low point, and a $100 million weekend would put it back in the company of the original series:
| Film | Domestic opening weekend |
| The Hunger Games: Catching Fire | $158.1 million |
| The Hunger Games | $152.5 million |
| The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 | $121.9 million |
| The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 | $102.7 million |
| The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | $44.6 million |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (tracking floor) | $80 million+ |
Reaching the Mockingjay range would mark a real turnaround after Songbirds & Snakes’ soft $44.6 million launch in 2023… and that’s the gap trackers are now debating.
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Rotten Tomatoes Outlook: What the Reviews Could Mean
Reviews hadn’t posted as of this writing, and Rotten Tomatoes still lists the Tomatometer as “coming soon.” Early reactions from preview screenings have leaned enthusiastic, with some comparisons reaching as far as Rogue One, though that’s separate from an official score, which won’t land until the embargo lifts closer to release. Kalshi’s market on the final number puts its forecast at 76.2%.
Here’s where that forecast would land next to the rest of the franchise:
| Film | Rotten Tomatoes (critics) |
| The Hunger Games (2012) | 84% |
| The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (2013) | 90% |
| The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 (2014) | 70% |
| The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (2015) | 70% |
| The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (2023) | 62% |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (Kalshi forecast) | 76.2% |
Release Date, Runtime and Early-Access Showings
The Sunrise on the Reaping release date is locked for Nov. 20, with a few ways to see it sooner or bigger:
- Early-access shows begin Wednesday, Nov. 18, at 6 p.m. local time, two days ahead of the wide release, in premium formats only: IMAX, Dolby Cinema, 4DX, ScreenX, Cinemark XD.
- At 158 minutes, it’s the longest film the franchise has put out.
- It carries a PG-13 rating.
Noah Kahan’s Lead Single and the Soundtrack Album
The soundtrack, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (the album), lands Nov. 13 via MCA, a week ahead of the movie. Noah Kahan supplied the lead single, “Draw You Out,” written and produced with The National’s Aaron Dessner, his first time contributing a song to a film soundtrack.
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