Aston Villa (15-6-6) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (1-20-7) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton, .
Aston Villa is favored at a -113 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-120o / -110u) goals.
Let's get into our Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton prediction.
Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton Prediction
Pick: Aston Villa Team Total Over 1.5 Goals
Our Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton best bet focuses on the visitors' offensive output, as we project Aston Villa to score over 1.5 goals in the match.
Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -125 | 2.5 -120o / -110u | -113 |
| Wolverhampton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -115 | 2.5 -120o / -110u | +295 |
Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton Kalshi Odds
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Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton Picks, Parlay
Pick: Aston Villa Team Total Over 1.5 Goals
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa side consistently produces positive results on the road, a key factor for this pick. The team sits third in the Premier League standings for a reason, and its quest for a Champions League spot adds motivation. Villa presents a strong value proposition to score at least two goals against a porous Wolves defense, widely considered one of the worst in the league.
Aston Villa’s away form is particularly impressive. The club has lost just once in its last 11 matches away from home, with that single defeat being a hard-fought contest against league leader Arsenal. This resilience on the road is a testament to the team’s structure and offensive capability.
Conversely, Wolves have struggled mightily at home. The club has the unfortunate distinction of conceding the most home goals in the Premier League, with 30 goals allowed in just 14 matches at Molineux. Overall, their defense has been breached for two or more goals in 18 separate games across all competitions this season. This defensive fragility creates the perfect opportunity for a high-powered opponent. While the visitors have not scored twice against Wolves since 2012, Villa’s current top form provides an ideal chance to end that long-standing trend.
Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Aston Villa | Draw | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| 48.8% | 25.5% | 25.7% |
Projected Total Goals
| Aston Villa | Total Goals | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | 2.40 | 0.97 |
Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton Betting Analysis
The 41-point gap in the standings between these two clubs illustrates the significant difference in quality. While Wolves recently managed a surprise result against Arsenal, Unai Emery will expect his squad to secure a victory. Three points are essential for Villa to maintain its position in the Champions League places as the season progresses.
An interesting statistical narrative surrounds Villa's season. The team has drastically outperformed its underlying data; expected points models suggest its performances are more aligned with a 12th-place team. This discrepancy stems from Villa’s clinical finishing ability and aptitude from long range, which allow the team to exceed its expected goals (xG). However, these numbers also suggest Wolves may find some success and keep the contest close. Emery’s side has registered a lower xG than its opponent in 11 of 13 away matches.
From a head-to-head perspective, Aston Villa has controlled recent history. Villa has two wins from the last five meetings, with Wolves only managing one victory. Both of Villa’s wins came without conceding a goal. These matchups have historically been low-scoring affairs, with an average of just 2.2 total goals over the last five encounters. Despite this trend, Villa's current offensive form and Wolves' defensive issues point toward a different outcome this time.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Aston Villa vs Wolves picks.
